I love that Rope of Silicon‘s Brad Brevet had the gall…the absolute nerve!…to predict the five likeliest Best Director finalists 9 1/2 months from now. I kind of agree with his picks. We’re all assuming that one outlier, somebody nobody’s eyeballing right now, will step into the arena sometime between October and Christmas, but these five will do for now.

Yesterday Marshall Fine tapped out a piece about the rules governing movie-review embargos, or at least a description of how the game tends to work. He wrote this because things got a little improv-y during the recent run-up to Oz The Great and Powerful. For a while Disney publicists were telling reviewers they had to hold despite Variety‘s Justin Chang, The Hollywood Reporter‘s Todd McCarthy and several British critics having posted reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Here‘s our discussion about same. We got into a few other topics besides.

Apologies for hastily posting this last night without including the mp3 file — brilliant.

It was announced two or three hours ago that Sony will definitely be releasing David O. Russell‘s untitled Abscam movie in December (limited on 12.13, wide on Christmas Day), and you can bet your booty it’ll be a Best Picture contender. It’ll be the “two” in Russell’s one-two punch, and to the Academy members who voted for Argo or Life of Pi over Silver Linings Playbook (which was only the second-best film of 2012 after Zero Dark Thirty and a box-office champ and the winner of eight Oscar nominations and four Spirit Awards), Russell’s message will be “bitches!…this time you’ll do the right thing.”

Unless, of course, the true-life crime saga turns out to be just a good and gripping dramedy with a few live-wire performances from Christian Bale, Jeremy Renner, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence and Louis C.K. In which case all bets are off. Are you kidding me? Of course it’s going to be in the Best Picture conversation.

Russell has either just begun or is just about to begin shooting in the Boston area. Pic is based on a 2010 Eric Singer script called American Bullshit. It’s about the 1970s FBI Abscam sting operation, which ultimately led to the conviction of a U.S. Senator, five Congressmen, and other government figures.

On 12.3.12 The Playlist‘s Rodrigo Perez quoted Russell discussing the Abscam film:

“It’s a crime drama that’s really about some very high end financial con artists who are very colorful, strange characters,” Russel said. “And it’s about the FBI…but Bradley [Cooper’s] like an ethnic FBI guy from the Bronx and it’s about the [eventually indicted] mayor of Camden, New Jersey, Angelo Errichetti, who is Jeremy Renner. Camden was mostly a black and Puerto Rican community at that time. Very amazing, interesting world of New York at that time. It’s very exciting.

“They’re all going to do things we haven’t seen them do in this movie, it’s going to be very exciting. Renner’s going to be like you’ve never saw him. Bradley’s going to be like you never saw him. Christian will be…I don’t want to give too much of it away but they’re all playing real-life characters from the ‘70s and they’re very intense in an insane drama.”

“This [was] life and death stakes for people,” Russell went on. “The mafia was involved in this, it was very frightening. People’s lives were on the line and it was unbelievably hairy what these characters were doing. But I’m interested in their relationships, in their love lives, in their bedrooms, in their hearts…you know, what’s going on between them emotionally. There’s a love triangle between Amy, Bradley and Christian. And Jeremy and Christian have kind of a very unexpected bromance because they’re very similar New Jersey and New York-type characters, so they really take to each other.

“In real life, these things are stranger than fiction so there has to be a lot of comedy in them. Some of my favorite films by the Coen Brothers or by Scorsese or Tarantino, those pictures are both really emotional, intense, and they’re also funny and from a place of realness. It always has to be from a place of realness. Even Tarantino, even when he’s killing Hitler [in Inglorious Basterds] which is unreal, it’s real. It’s like a gothic comic book that somehow is real. It’s emotional because he puts emotions into it.”

Rodney Ascher‘s Room 237 (IFC Films, 3.29) isn’t just about nutty theories about various hidden meanings in Stanley Kubrick‘s The Shining — it’s also about echoes and replications of that classic 1980 film. The new poster (a variation of that famous black-and-yellow Shining one-sheet) reflects this attitude. Ditto the slogan’s allusion to the maze outside the Overlook.

Ditto Acher’s pronounced resemblance to Kubrick as he looked between the mid ’60s and early ’70s [see video].

“Room 237 is so incredibly dense and labrynthian and jam-packed with thoughts and probes and speculations that you almost have to see it twice — there’s just too much to take in during one sitting.” — from one of my 2012 Toronto riffs.

Starting at 2:12 Girls producer-director-writer Lena Dunham explains the emotional and psychological makeup of Adam Driver‘s “Adam” character. He was starting to act this year like a decent and considerate fellow until last Sunday night when he said “get on all fours” to whatsername and then had degrading sex with her…nice. Dunham says Adam is trying to protect himself but I know guys like this. He’s an animal. He’s thisclose to physical violence and perhaps worse.

This IMAX Oz Balloon short is a perfect expression of the rampant CGI virus that’s undermining (if not killing) any chance of “belief” in fantasy films these days. It’s so full of CG touch-ups and whiz-bang editing that you don’t believe a frame of it, and yet the balloon is real and so was the voyage. On 2.13 it visited Hollywood’s El Capitan and then Disneyland in Anaheim, and then Manhattan’s Central Park on March 5th and 6th. But the short suggests it all happened on a hard drive. Nice work, guys.

In Michel Gondry‘s Mood Indigo (opening in France and Belgium on 4.24), Romain Duris plays an inventor who gets married to Chloe (Audrey Tatou). She becomes ill after a water lily enters her lung and starts growing there, which requires a cure. You could never get away with a story like this in an American film…ever. It’s obvious that Gondry has given the film a magical Amelie-type vibe. You don’t need subtitles with a film like this.

Mood Indigo will presumably play at the 2013 Cannes Film Festival, or at least in the market section. If all else fails it’ll be playing commercially at the Olympia or the Star.

There’s a clip in this trailer showing Duris being squeezed by moving walls. I can relate to that.

Baz Luhrman‘s The Great Gatsby will open the 66th Cannes Film Festival on Wednesday, May 15. Somebody tell me why this is a big deal with the adaptation of F. Scott Fitsgerald‘s novel opening in the States on May 10th. The 3D film will screen for the press on Wednesday morning followed by a press conference with Baz, Leonardo DiCaprio, Tobey Maguire, Carey Mulligan, Joel Edgerton, Isla Fisher and Jason Clarke probably taking part. Gatsby was originally slated to open last year but Warner Bros. yanked it. I don’t believe that concerns over DiCaprio having a costarring role in Django Unchained, which opened last December, had much to do with WB’s decision.

So you’ve got yesterday’s Don Draper, faded and opaque in a light summer suit, about to cross Madison Avenue while the new 1968 version of Don (as last season ended in the summer of ’67 with Nancy Sinatra singing “You Only Live Twice“), more sharply defined and perhaps a bit more aggressive, stepping up to the curb. The old Don is saying, “Whoa…did I just pass myself?” The new Don is saying, “Whatever, let it go…this is now and I’m running the show.”

Sooner or later Don is going to have to start growing his hair a little longer, or at least the beginnings of modest sideburns. By ’68 even straight-laced ad execs had started to loosen up and unbutton from the early ’60s button-down style, which was half-inherited from the JFK attitude and half from Sloan Wilson‘s The Man in the Gray-Flannel Suit.

I’ve been reading Phillip Roth‘s books all my life. It was his compulsive candor about sex, I think, that hooked me initially and kept me coming back. For some reason I was more impressed by Roth’s stories about horndog behavior than I was by, say, Henry Miller‘s. Roth was the first guy I read who described anal. That got to me on a certain level. I said to myself, “Well, if Phillip Roth can not only go there but openly write about it, I guess it’s an okay thing.”

These days Roth is writing about the approaching finale, about humbling, about everyone dying around him. I guess this is why he’s let himself be profiled by an American Masters doc. He’s figuring it’s now or never. He’ll turn 80 on 3.19.

I have to be honest — I’ve only seen half of Philip Roth: Unmasked. I was enjoying it but I was tired or something. It’s a 90-minute portrait in which Roth riffs on his life and art “as he has never done before,” the copy says. It debuts on PBS on 3.29, but on Wednesday it’ll play at the Film Forum for a week.

I’ve read Portnoy’s Complaint, Our Gang, The Human Stain, The Ghost Writer (’79), The Dying Animal, a screenplay based on American Pastoral but not the book, Goodbye Columbus, Zuckerman Unbound (’81). Now that I’ve been somewhat re-energized I’d like to read The Anatomy Lesson (’83), The Prague Orgy (’85), all of I Married A Communist (’98, having read about a third of it) and Exit Ghost (’07).

“The crux of this plainly observed and illuminating documentary, centered on filmed interviews with the novelist that are organized into a loose biographical portrait, is a classic story of personal and artistic self-discovery,” New Yorker critic Richard Brody writes. “[This began] with the thirtyish writer’s recognition, nearly half a century ago, in the company of a new group of like-minded friends in New York, that his round-table comedic voice was entertaining and therefore needed to be channelled into his work.

“The result, of course, was Portnoy’s Complaint, one of the key literary works of the sixties, which also made Roth famous. In much of the discussion that follows, he explains how he dealt with his new public persona — and how he transformed his experiences into fiction.

“His achievements are parsed and praised in interviews with such writers as Nicole Krauss, Jonathan Franzen and Claudia Roth Pierpont. Along the way, it’s as if yet another voice, another mask, were under construction: that of the wise retiree, facing the end of his life with a jovially sardonic serenity, if for no other reason than the confidence that his written voice will outlive him.”

Has the age difference between Man of Steel costars Henry Cavill (Clark Kent/Superman) and Amy Adams (Lois Lane) struck anyone else as…well, curious? I don’t know if they’re romantically linked in Zack Snyder‘s film or not, but their characters were entwined in the last two Superman films. And honestly? The ginger-headed, pale-skinned Adams looks a bit too old for Cavill. You can call me names but it’s true.

C’mon, she’s got him by a good eight years. Cavill will turn 30 in May and she’ll turn 40 in August 2014. Adams has always been a hot tamale but she’s never looked strikingly younger than her age. If Cavill was in a typical romcom, you know Adams could be cast as his best friend’s older sister.

In a pinch Cavill could pass for 25 or so, which is what Chris Reeve was when he shot Superman (’78). Margot Kidder was 28 or 29 when she played Lois Lane in that film, but she didn’t seem the least bit older than Reeve. When he shot Bryan Singer‘s Superman Returns (’06) Brandon Routh (Superman/Clark Kent) was 26 or so, and costar Kate Bosworth (Lois Lane) was 23 — again, not an issue. I’m just saying that Cavill looks like a healthy and buffed 20something and Adams, attractive as she is, looks her age. She’ll more than make up for this with her performance, I’m presuming, and for all I know a line or two of dialogue will take note of the slight age-discrepancy. I’m just saying it’s there.

Think of how Adams looked in The Master, On The Road and Trouble With The Curve. She’s one of the best actresses around but she’s no spring chicken.

Question: at what point would Man of Steel‘s casting directors (Kristy Carlson, Lora Kennedy, Claire Simon) have said to themselves, “You know something? Adams is just a bit too old. We have to go just a little bit younger”? What if she’d been 40 instead of 38 when they shot Man of Steel? What if she’d been 41 or 42? I’m all for older woman-younger guy hook-ups in movies, but something as square as Man of Steel presumably demands a more traditional if not a vaguely old-fashioned attitude.

Earlier today Rope of Silicon‘s Brad Brevet ran a likeliest Best Picture contenders piece, and I was surprised that he called John Wells‘ August: Osage County (Weinstein Co., 11.8) one of his “other side of the cut” films, i.e. not a top-tenner. In so doing he lumped it in with The Fifth Estate, Lee Daniels‘ The Butler (an all-but-guaranteed shortfaller), Elysium and Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom.

I immediately recalled that Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil had shared something a bit dismissive about August Osage County, which I saw on Broadway about five or six years ago and went nuts for. I’ve always figured that with the five-Tony-Award pedigree and the prospect of a knock-down, drag-out brawl between Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts that it would have to be a heavy year-end hitter.

So I wrote them both as follows: “Can you guys briefly explain your basic prejudice about August: Osage County? Tom, you told me months ago that you don’t see it working all that well as a film, and that one-set, dialogue-driven, Long Day’s Journey Into Night-like plays of this sort don’t translate all that well into movies and so on. Is it because John Wells is the director, and his last film, Company Men, wasn’t all that great? I was hugely impressed by the play when I saw it in NYC…what was it, five years ago?”

Brevet said “it’s not necessarily a prejudice as much as it’s up against a lot of strong, though unseen, competition. Plus a talky dark comedy from John Wells just doesn’t jump out at me as an instant Best Picture front-runner beyond the actors that will surely be competing for nominations.”

O’Neil answered thusly: “I’m skeptical about another stage-to-screen transfer of a Broadway show that won Best Play. Look at the recent disappointments (War Horse, Doubt, God of Carnage) and fiascos (History Boys, Proof). It’s better to have lost Best Play like Frost/Nixon did to Tom Stoppard’s Coast of Utopia. F/N was a terrific film that will endure.

“I think producers like Harvey who invest in both Hollywood film and Broadway theater get blinding hard-ons for shows that have overblown reputations because they won awards on Broadway. Let’s be honest — there’s so little new, quality-level theater on Broadway competing for Best Play that lightweight puff like History Boys can win. That doesn’t mean it should be made into a movie. Anybody who’s actually seen August: Osage County knows that nothing at all happens for three hours except for an intoxicated, hellcat momma staggering around the stage, shrieking wisecracks and insults. The wisecracks aren’t really clever, the characters are one-dimensional and…wait, does it have a plot? I don’t remember seeing one back in 2008 when I suffered through a performance at the Music Box Theater.”

Obviously no one (myself included) knows anything at this stage. Well, I know I loved the play and that it’s a corrosive family drama and that all the theatre critics went apeshit over it. Most of us would be shocked, I think, if at least some of that power didn’t translate to the screen. But we know right now that there’s a little bit of resistance out there, however brusque or premature it might sound.

The August: Osage County producers bought this house — “the historic Boulanger home north of Pawhuska” — to shoot in. “The home and 22 acres, including several barns and ponds, were sold by Michael and Deborah McKinney [and] went for the asking.”