The big BAFTA news this morning, if you want to call it that, is that the Big Short momentum we’ve all been sensing (insect antennae vibrations, tingling neck hair) is looking real, and as a result the Spotlight guys might have reason to start biting their nails. Maybe. Or maybe not. Adam McKay‘s wonky housing-mortgage dramedy landed five BAFTA nominations, including Best Film and Best Director, while Tom McCarthy‘s journalism drama snagged just three — Best Film, Best Original Screenplay and a Best Supporting Actor nom for Mark Ruffalo. Then again N.Y. Post critic Lou Lumenick tweeted this morning that The Big Short “is the new Wolf of Wall Street — lots of noms but won’t close the deal.”

The Spotlight and The Big Short teams are also competing with a pair of pre-Golden Globe parties this weekend only a night apart — a Spotlight dinner this evening in Beverly Hills vs. The Big Short‘s Saturday night soiree at the Chateau Marmont. And you know who will be at these parties? The same journos and Academy members who’ve been attending all the award-season events over the last couple of months. Journo: “What…you again? I just saw you at that Bryan Cranston party.” Academy member: “My thoughts exactly, pal. No offense but have you ever considered doing something with your evenings besides schmoozing at parties and jostling for celebrity face-time?” Journo: “Same to ya, fella….oh, wait…ooh! ooh! There’s Steve Carell!”

Carol landed nine nominations, as did Bridge of Spies — a completely decent, middle-ground espionage drama that no one will be watching or talking about six months or a year from now, much less five or ten years hence. The Revenant landed eight noms. The Martian‘s Ridley Scott — “Sir Ridders” — got his gold-watch nomination for Best Director, and Matt Damon was nominated for Best Actor along with The Revenant‘s Leonardo DiCaprio (pretty much locked to win), Steve JobsMichael Fassbender, The Danish Girl‘s Eddie Redmayne (anybody with a smidgen of taste hates this movie but the none-too-brights are impressed with Redmayne’s open-hearted transgendering) and Trumbo‘s Bryan Cranston.

Mad Max: Fury Road and director George Miller got the shaft — no major noms, just tech stuff.

The BAFTAs blew off Charlotte Rampling! The 45 Years star is much more in the conversation than Lady In The Van‘s Maggie Smith but they nominated Smith and not Rampling? This is bullshit.

Nobody really cares about the BAFTAs unless they do something to really upset the apple cart, like when they favored Boyhood over Birdman last year. With the exception of the “yes, it’s true — The Big Short is definitely gaining!” meme, this year’s nominations are basically about a lot of shuffleboard maneuvering. Just a lot of speculation and hot air and kowtowing to the powerful with the usual soupcon of British nativism plus a lot of people drinking at the event. Do BAFTA noms move the needle here and there? Perhaps on some level. Do you think they do? I think it’s mostly hoo-hah and jizz-whizz. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

2015 BAFTA NOMINATIONS
(presented in on 2.14.16)

BEST FILM:
THE BIG SHORT Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Brad Pitt
BRIDGE OF SPIES Kristie Macosko Krieger, Marc Platt, Steven Spielberg
CAROL Elizabeth Karlsen, Christine Vachon, Stephen Woolley
THE REVENANT Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Arnon Milchan, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon
SPOTLIGHT Steve Golin, Blye Pagon Faust, Nicole Rocklin, Michael Sugar

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM:
45 YEARS Andrew Haigh, Tristan Goligher
AMY Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees
BROOKLYN John Crowley, Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey, Nick Hornby
THE DANISH GIRL Tom Hooper, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Anne Harrison, Gail Mutrux, Lucinda Coxon
EX MACHINA Alex Garland, Andrew Macdonald, Allon Reich
THE LOBSTER Yorgos Lanthimos, Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Efthimis Filippou

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER:
ALEX GARLAND (Director) Ex Machina
DEBBIE TUCKER GREEN (Writer/Director) Second Coming
NAJI ABU NOWAR (Writer/Director) RUPERT LLOYD (Producer) Theeb
SEAN MCALLISTER (Director/Producer), ELHUM SHAKERIFAR (Producer) A Syrian Love Story
STEPHEN FINGLETON (Writer/Director) The Survivalist

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE:
THE ASSASSIN Hou Hsiao-Hsien
FORCE MAJEURE Ruben Östlund
THEEB Naji Abu Nowar, Rupert Lloyd
TIMBUKTU Abderrahmane Sissako
WILD TALES Damián Szifron

DOCUMENTARY:
AMY Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees
CARTEL LAND Matthew Heineman, Tom Yellin
HE NAMED ME MALALA Davis Guggenheim, Walter Parkes, Laurie MacDonald
LISTEN TO ME MARLON Stevan Riley, John Battsek, George Chignell, R.J. Cutler
SHERPA Jennifer Peedom, Bridget Ikin, John Smithson

ANIMATED FILM:
INSIDE OUT Pete Docter
MINIONS Pierre Coffin, Kyle Balda
SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE Mark Burton, Richard Starzak

DIRECTOR
THE BIG SHORT Adam McKay
BRIDGE OF SPIES Steven Spielberg
CAROL Todd Haynes
THE MARTIAN Ridley Scott
THE REVENANT Alejandro G. Iñárritu

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
BRIDGE OF SPIES Matthew Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
EX MACHINA Alex Garland
THE HATEFUL EIGHT Quentin Tarantino
INSIDE OUT Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve
SPOTLIGHT Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
THE BIG SHORT Adam McKay, Charles Randolph
BROOKLYN Nick Hornby
CAROL Phyllis Nagy
ROOM Emma Donoghue
STEVE JOBS Aaron Sorkin

LEADING ACTOR:
BRYAN CRANSTON Trumbo
EDDIE REDMAYNE The Danish Girl
LEONARDO DICAPRIO The Revenant
MATT DAMON The Martian
MICHAEL FASSBENDER Steve Jobs

LEADING ACTRESS:
ALICIA VIKANDER The Danish Girl
BRIE LARSON Room
CATE BLANCHETT Carol
MAGGIE SMITH The Lady in the Van
SAOIRSE RONAN Brooklyn

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
BENICIO DEL TORO Sicario
CHRISTIAN BALE The Big Short
IDRIS ELBA Beasts of No Nation
MARK RUFFALO Spotlight
MARK RYLANCE Bridge of Spies

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
ALICIA VIKANDER Ex Machina
JENNIFER JASON LEIGH The Hateful Eight
JULIE WALTERS Brooklyn
KATE WINSLET Steve Jobs
ROONEY MARA Carol

ORIGINAL MUSIC:
BRIDGE OF SPIES Thomas Newman
THE HATEFUL EIGHT Ennio Morricone
THE REVENANT Ryuichi Sakamoto, Carsten Nicolai
SICARIO Jóhann Jóhannsson
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS John Williams

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
BRIDGE OF SPIES Janusz Kamiński
CAROL Ed Lachman
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD John Seale
THE REVENANT Emmanuel Lubezki
SICARIO Roger Deakins

EDITING:
THE BIG SHORT Hank Corwin
BRIDGE OF SPIES Michael Kahn
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Margaret Sixel
THE MARTIAN Pietro Scalia
THE REVENANT Stephen Mirrione

PRODUCTION DESIGN:
BRIDGE OF SPIES Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo
CAROL Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Colin Gibson, Lisa Thompson
THE MARTIAN Arthur Max, Celia Bobak
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS Rick Carter, Darren Gilford, Lee Sandales

COSTUME DESIGN:
BROOKLYN Odile Dicks-Mireaux
CAROL Sandy Powell
CINDERELLA Sandy Powell
THE DANISH GIRL Paco Delgado
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Jenny Beavan

MAKE UP & HAIR:
BROOKLYN Morna Ferguson, Lorraine Glynn
CAROL Jerry DeCarlo, Patricia Regan
THE DANISH GIRL Jan Sewell
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Lesley Vanderwalt, Damian Martin
THE REVENANT Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman, Robert Pandini

SOUND:
BRIDGE OF SPIES Drew Kunin, Richard Hymns, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Scott Hecker, Chris Jenkins, Mark Mangini, Ben Osmo, Gregg Rudloff, David White
THE MARTIAN Paul Massey, Mac Ruth, Oliver Tarney, Mark Taylor
THE REVENANT Lon Bender, Chris Duesterdiek, Martin Hernandez, Frank A. Montaño, Jon Taylor, Randy Thom
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Matthew Wood, Stuart Wilson

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS:
ANT-MAN Jake Morrison, Greg Steele, Dan Sudick, Alex Wuttke
EX MACHINA Mark Ardington, Sara Bennett, Paul Norris, Andrew Whitehurst
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Andrew Jackson, Dan Oliver, Tom Wood, Andy Williams
THE MARTIAN Chris Lawrence, Tim Ledbury, Richard Stammers, Steven Warner
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS Chris Corbould, Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan

BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION:
EDMOND Nina Gantz, Emilie Jouffroy
MANOMAN Simon Cartwright, Kamilla Kristiane Hodol
PROLOGUE Richard Williams, Imogen Sutton

BRITISH SHORT FILM:
ELEPHANT Nick Helm, Alex Moody, Esther Smith
MINING POEMS OR ODES Callum Rice, Jack Cocker
OPERATOR Caroline Bartleet, Rebecca Morgan
OVER Jörn Threlfall, Jeremy Bannister
SAMUEL-613 Billy Lumby, Cheyenne Conway

THE EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public) :
BEL POWLEY
BRIE LARSON
DAKOTA JOHNSON
JOHN BOYEGA
TARON EGERTON