At one point in a 1.21 New Yorker analysis piece about the results of the New Hampshire primary, called “Minority Report,” Ryan Lizza wonders if Barack Obama‘s final tally was influenced by the “Bradley effect” — a tendency of poorer, less-educated white voters to say they support this or that black candidate, and then turn tail when they’re in the privacy of a voting booth.
“The evidence is murky, but his campaign believes the question is important enough to warrant study. When I asked a senior Obama adviser whether the Bradley effect was a possible explanation for the gap between the final poll numbers, which showed Obama leading by an average of eight points, and the ultimate outcome, he replied, ‘Definitely.’
“He added, ‘If so, then the question is: what’s different between Iowa and New Hampshire? It could be that the socially acceptable thing in front of your neighbor at a caucus could be different than what you do in a secret ballot. Obviously, that’s something we’re going to be trying to figure out as we go forward, primarily through polling. I know people are working on ways of asking questions about getting at people’s attitudes about race. We’re working on this.”