In a last-minute 2019 Oscars prediction piece, N.Y. Times carpetbagger Kyle Buchanan is betting on two trophies for Alfonso Cuaron‘s Roma — Best Picture and Foreign Language Feature.

Buchanan may be correct about Roma winning the Best Picture Oscar. 60% or 65% of my own insect antennae signals are telling me the same thing. First and foremost is the fact that Roma is a perfectly crafted, world-class art film. I’ve also stated that Roma is obviously in synch with current p.c. aspirations and representation sentiments among progressive-minded Academy voters, and that voters will most likely feel better the next morning if they give the prize to Cuaron’s film, etc. Plus it boasts the inclusion-and-representation symbolism of Yalitza Aparacio in the lead role.

What Buchanan apparently isn’t taking into consideration is the fact that he, Kyle Buchanan, lives, works, schmoozes, networks and chit-chats inside the blase liberal Hollywood cool-cat social bubble that everyone else is inhabiting (Hollywood Elsewhere included), and that sometimes the only way to really see through the Oscar confetti is to step outside that bubble and become Steppenwolf.

Here’s how Buchanan assesses the Best Foreign Language Feature situation a la Sunday night:

“This is one of the strongest foreign-film lineups in recent memory, and in any other year, all of these movies would have the profile of a winner, including the Palme d’Or winner Shoplifters, Lebanon’s moving Capernaum and Cold War and Never Look Away, which both scored cinematography nominations as well. (Cold War even cracked the race for best director.) Still, in a year when Roma could make history as the first foreign-language film to win best picture, it would seem outrageous for the movie to miss this prize on its path to victory.”

With Roma possibly fated to win the Best Picture Oscar, how the hell would be it be “outrageous” if it failed to win the Best Foreign Language Feature Oscar? Why does it have to win both Oscars? Especially when so many have been swooning over Cold War, which should, I feel, win the Foreign Language Oscar in a walk?