…when it comes to predicting Best Picture Oscar contenders for ’24 and ’25. Why? Because Davis believes Steve McQueen‘s Blitz, which is obviously an underwhelmer due to Appple’s decision to premiere this WWII drama at the London Film Festival, is the most likely winner. This is insane…totally insane.

Keep in mind that Davis has often favored award-season contenders made or written by or starring POCs, hence his top-ten support of Blitz, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson. (If there’s one accomplished filmmaker of color who doesn’t churn ou6 black-identity films, it’s Steve McQueen.) Significantly Davis has the soon-to-open Sing Sing, a mixed-race prison drama directed and written by white guys, in 22nd place on his Best Picture chart. Not much of a fan!

It’s also significant that Clayton has totally blown off Robert Zemeckis‘s Here…an interesting concept…the events of a single room and its inhabitants spanning from the past to well into the future, reverse-aging CG “makeup”, etc. Costars Tom Hanks and Robin Wright are apparently too white to make the cut. Do I have that right, Clayton?

Here are Davis’s Best Picture predictions with cryptic HE comments accompanying each title:

1. “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)…won’t be as major contender…NO WAY…the London Film Festival selection is a death rattle.
2. “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)…sweating homoerotic leather jockstrap sword & sandal drama…I seriously doubt it but who knows? Is Scott losing his mojo?
3. “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)…sufFering black kids in Florida reform school…don’t bet the farm.
4. “Conclave” (Focus Features)…HE agrees, a major contender.
5. “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics — Pedro Almodovar)…yes!
6. “Anora” (Neon)…yes! Possible winner!
7. “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)…tech awards…it may be Best Picture nominated but feels like a weak sister.
8. “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)…MAYBE, NO CLUE.
9. “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix…likely Best Picture contender, albeit unbelievable and underwhelming. Trans theology, trans identity, trans exclamation.
10 “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

11. “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures Is James Mangold’s Bob Dylan flick coming out this year? If so, YES!!
12 “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros….YES!!!
13 “Sing Sing” (A24)…qweak sister, but good for Colman Domingo
14 “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
15 “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution….maybe, who knows?)
16 “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution…not a chance…everyone hates Angelina Jolie these daye)
17 “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)….who?
18 “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures….not a chance.
19 “We Live in Time” (A24)
20 “Inside Out 2” (Pixar)

21 “Challengers” (Amazon MGM…maybe, who knows?).
22 “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures…YES!!!
23 “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon…nope)
24 “Memoirs of a Snail” (IFC Films)…
25 “Wicked” (Universal Pictures…people are hating on this film sight unseen)
26 “Hit Man” (Netflix)…Clayton is fooling around now.
27 “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
28 “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
29 “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
30 “The Substance” (Mubi)

HE-posted on 3.16.24:

Steve McQueen‘s Blitz (Apple Original Films)…London blitzed by German bombs in early 1940s…nope…dead letter in Oscar’s award-season post office.

Edward Berger‘s Conclave (Focus Features)…based on 2016 Robert Harris novel, British-American thriller about finding a successor to a suddenly deceased Pope. Written by Peter Straughan. Costarring Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini. Good reviews, probably not happening.

Ridley Scott‘s Gladiator 2 (Paramount, 11.22) gets an automatic demerit (if not a disqualification) because the dreaded Paul Mescal has the principal lead role, and secondly because Pedro Pascal is costarring, These two guys can kill any film of any kind. Sweat-soaked scrotums. A supporting Denzel Washington (playing a former slave-turned-wealthy arms and commodity dealer with a grudge against the emperors”) is the only reason to feel aroused.

Denis Villeneuve‘s Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)…likely Best Picture nomination but won’t win.

George Miller‘s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros., 5.24)

Robert Zemeckis‘s Here…interesting concept…”the events of a single room and its inhabitants spanning from the past to well into the future”, etc.

Joshua Oppenheimer‘s The End (Neon)…post-apocalyptic, bad whitey guilt-trip film….”a wealthy family lives in an underground bunker two decades after the end of the world, which they directly contributed to”….forget it. Tilda Swinton, George MacKay, Moses Ingram, Michael Shannon.

Chris Sanders‘ The Wild Robot (DreamWorks animated)….forget it…a robot Cast Away…not a chance, get outta town.

Andrea Arnold‘s Bird…an automatic problem due to HE anathema Barry Keoghan (weirdo, bee-stung nose) being the star.

Yorgos Lanthimos‘s Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight)….three-part antholoogy…not this time.

Francis Coppola‘s Megalopolis…ambitious, self-funded, out there…do you honestly believe Coppola will slamdunk this? Caveat emptor.

RaMell Ross‘s The Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion)…abusive Florida reform school drama…white baddies, moral condemnation, constant audience punishment.

Malcolm Washington‘s The Piano Lesson (Netflix)…reasonable expectation of good reviews, probably not happening as a Best Picture contender.

Mike Leigh‘s Hard Truths…maybe but doubtful. You know Leigh.

Pablo Larrain‘s Maria…I don’t want to watch another Larrain film about a mythic, tragic or headstrong female character ever again.

Jason Reitman‘s SNL: 1975 (Sony Pictures).

Jon Chu‘s Wicked (Universal)….forget it.

Nine days before the 9.6 U.S. opening of Tim Burton’s Beetlejuice Bee=tlejuice, the 36-years-later sequel to the original Beetlejuice will have its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival. The horror comedy will open internationally on Wednesday, 9.4, and on Friday, 9.6 in the States.

CNN’s new post-debate nationwide poll has Trump beating Biden, 49% vs. 43% — numbers that haven’t changed since April. But Biden’s job-approval rating is down to 36% — only seven points higher than Fredric March‘s Jordan Lyman rating (29%) in Seven Days in May. And Joe is down 10 points with independent voters.

Biden is obviously finished, but just to underline the situation, where are the post-debate polls from the battleground states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsyvania, Georgia, Arizona)?

If Biden looks as bad in these individual state polls (and we all know the almost certain answer to this question), he’s absolutely DEAD.

Significantly, a theoretical Kamala Harris candidacy is polling only two points behind Donald Trump. As weak and whiny and disliked as she is, and as poor a public speaker as she is, Harris might just eke out a win. Women and particularly women of color would be overjoyed and totally fired up.

If Joe and Jill Biden were really smart, here’s a really smart move they could make. Biden resigns the presidency right now — this week, this month — and Harris becomes President. Then she wouldn’t be running against Trump as a candidate who may or may not do this or that. She’d be running as a serving President, and would have an enormous tactical advantage against The Beast. Plus she could debate him like a champ.

I don’t like Harris — never have, probably never will — but candidate-wise she’d be ten times better than Biden. Biden would be a genius if he were to resign the Presidency and hand the sceptre to Harris. An absolute effing genius.

If the Bidens continue to dig in their heels (Lady Macbeth in particular) and refuse to deal wi6h reality, the best thing for the country would be….I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the best thing for the country would be if Biden becomes irrefutably incapacitated or even (yes, I’m saying it) succumbs to the natural biological process that all 80something and 90something people commonly face.

A non-epic battle between the worldviews of legendary Swiss physicist Albert Einstein and a rural Christian named Tricia La Perch happened on Facebook a day or two ago.

The latter posted a false story from the mid to late 1890s, focusing on young Einstein, presumably in his teens, questioning a Swiss university professor about the nature and existence of evil.

La Perch’s Einstein story ends as follows:

My commentary, posted a half-hour ago:

First of all, Tricia La Perch looks, no offense, like some kind of rural, primitive, Bible-belt Christian. She claims to have once worked for Sony Music Entertainment, but look at her photo — a generic image of a Trump supporter who lives in some kind of suburban wasteland or trailer park and eats fried food.

Look at her Facebook-page photo of early morning sunlight streaming across the sky — a pious, glory-of-God image straight out of Sunday school.

But to bend over backwards, I will examine her Albert Einstein story, which seems to have been written by an under-educated 12 year old. And I should know — I used to be one.

Did a stenographer transcribe Einstein’s comments? A court stenographer who just happened to be in this class and just happened to have a stenographic recorder handy?

Never trust an allegedly true story that ignores the situational particulars — date, place (if true I presume this took place in a Swiss university, probably in Bern or Zurich), Einstein’s alleged age when it happened, etc.

Right off the top I was muttering “I don’t trust this…smells like bullshit…aimed at none-too-brights.”

A brilliant, well-educated student in a Zurich university in the 1890s (Einstein was born in 1879) would have never phrased a question to a professor with the words “can I ask a question?” He or she would say “may I ask,” etc.

And this student would never ask if cold was “a thing”. That’s a 21st Century social-media term.

Did Einstein write about this discussion in some published memoir or discovered diary? If so, was it allegedly written the next day? Or a month or two later? Or decades later? Did Einstein ever write about his life in any kind of personal vein?

Like all geniuses, Albert Einstein was a mystic. He was as imbued and enlightened as Steppenwolf, Siddartha, Krishna.

No one who has truly swum in the waters of mysticism has ever sincerely associated “God” with matters of earthly, fallible human morality — notions of good or bad, righteousness or evil, etc.

No mystic has ever denied or argued against the obvious fact of cosmic unity and intelligent design. But at the same time no serious mystic would ever associate “God” with boilerplate concepts of “good” and “evil.”

In short no mystic worth his or her salt would ever wade into the above-described hokum. Good and evil are simplistic children’s terms. Due respect, but there’s no reason to even begin to trust this story.

…and consider the parallels between, on one hand, the current perceptions and disputes about how Joe Biden has mortally wounded himself while many are sanguine about the state of his campaign, and, on the other hand, the initial reactions to the RMS Titanic‘s collision with that iceberg on the evening of 4.15.12…how a relative few were aware that the ship was doomed and how most of the passengers were relatively calm as they lined up to get into the lifeboats.

Biden’s iceberg collision happened last Thursday night, but a lot of people are in denial about it.

Schmidt: “Time matters in situations like this…”

…if you’re in the process of squashing the little bugger? That’s why the joke isn’t funny. It makes no sense.

I’ll be okay with Ridley Scott‘s Gladiator II as long as it avoids gay or trans characters, and of course sidesteps any depictions or suggestions of homoeroticism or, God forbid, full-on sodomy. No ancient hard-ons of any kind, in or out of the arena, and no ejaculations. As long as that’s understood, we’re good. Or I am, at least.

I’m mentioning this because Scott is known for being receptive to story suggestions from his cast members, and because there’s a fair amount of pressure these days to include LGBTQ material or at least references to same in films, and because this sequel to Scott’s 24-year-old Gladiator costars Paul Mescal and Pedro Pascal, both of whom played gay characters last year in Andrew Haigh‘s All Of Us Strangers and Pedro Almodovar‘s Strange Way of Life, respectively.

I’m sorry but when I think of these guys I think…I don’t know what to think. But I can’t forget the cum droplets scene in All Of Us Strangers. Or Pedro angrily speaking to Ethan Hawke about “the smell of cum.”

Mescal plays Lucius Verus Diabetes, son of Russell Crowe‘s Maximus. We initially encounter Lucius in the North African coastal town of Numibia, living there with a wife and child. (What kind of toilet facilities did they have in ancient Numibia?) Pascal plays Marcus Ainus Acacius, a former Roman general forced to fight as a gladiator in punishment for insubordination. Denzel Washington is Macrinus Hepatitis, “a former slave-turned-wealthy merchant with a grudge against the emperors,” etc.

Oh, and Connie Nielsen plays Lucilla, the mother of Lucius. And 85 year-old Derek Jacobi is Senator Gracchus, a member of the Roman Senate who opposes the growing corruption of the Imperial court.

Note: I’m partly kidding about the names of Mescal, Pascal and Washington’s characters. I was influenced by characters in Woody Allen‘s “God.”

Vanity Fair synopsis: “Throughout Gladiator II, the reluctant hero encounters a number of other colorful and dubious characters.” Which means…whatever.

This side by side of Biden’s decline over the last 5 years is devastating.

Shame on everyone who covered this up and left our country in such a terrible position. pic.twitter.com/qacTgorqfx

— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) June 30, 2024

The six Supreme Court righties — John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Samuel Alito, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett —- aren’t behaving like totally slavish Donald Trump facilitators, but they’re mostly doing what they can to allow him to sidestep moves by special prosecutor Jack Smith,

They’re certainly setting the stage for endless delays in the Jan. 6th case and a complete cancellation of all federal prosecutions if Trump wins — and how can he not win after last Thursday night’s debate?

Alito and Thomas are nothing short of fiendish in their opinions, and the Trump-appointed Kavanaugh and Gorsuch are especially odious.

No Venice, no Telluride, no Toronto, no New York…a London Film Festival premiere is the kiss of death in an award-season context. Finito. Sidelined. Dead herring in the moonlight.

A few weeks ago a trusted friendo said he’d been told that Blitz is ”great”. The source of this viewpoint is either a gladhander or a denialist or a fucking liar.

London Film Festival premieres NEVER score in an award-season sense.

I’m not saying Steve McQueen has made a bad or seriously problematic film. He’s too good of a filmmaker. But there’s obviously something wrong with it. If it was all hunky-dory it would be premiering at Venice or Telluride or at the New York Film Festival.

We all understand the hometown sentiment aspect of debuting Blitz in London, and that’s fine. But it’s no Best Picture contender —- you can take that to the bank.

Well, not “instant”. A mere four days ago (i.e., last Thursday afternoon) Jill Biden wasn’t a demonic figure. But she sure as hell is now. She’s become the head cheerleader of our national doom spiral.

“For those who love the President, starting with his wife, it’s time to tell him: for God’s sake, and the country’s, and his own —- don’t run.” — from Bret Stephens’ “The ‘Bad Debate’ Nonsense’, posted on 6.30.24.