It’s no longer just Variety‘s Clayton Davis predicting the collapse of the Carey Mulligan for Best Actress campaign, which seemed like a safe bet until Viola Davis‘s Best Actress SAG win. Now The Hollywood Reporter‘s Scott Feinberg has also thrown in the Mulligan towel, relegating her to a third-place slot among the five Oscar nominees for Best Actress.

Feinberg is also, bizarrely, predicting that Nomadland‘s Frances McDormand will take the Best Actress trophy — which of course will be her third. I thought her minimal campaign plus “she’s already won twice” meant she wouldn’t prevail.