The 2016 Golden Globe nominations were announced this morning by The Hollywood Foreign Press Association. GG noms stir the conversational pot, help SAG-snubbed contenders get back into the psychological/emotional swing of things, focus attention in the major categories, toss in a couple of surprises, etc. Here are the nominees plus HE mood-pocket commentary:

Best Motion Picture, Drama: Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight. HE comment: This is Spotlight‘s to lose. These five are almost certainly the biggies right now in terms of the general conversation, even if Love & Mercy, Brooklyn and Beasts of No Nation deserve their place at the table. I don’t need to remind the community that The Movie Godz are particularly behind Love & Mercy, and concurrently distressed that so many people have said it doesn’t rate because it was released last June. C’mon!

Best Motion Picture, Comedy: The Big Short, Joy, The Martian, Spy, Trainwreck. HE comment: Huzzah for The Big Short! The HFPA can nominate The Martian as a comedy and even give it an award and that’s fine, but that doesn’t change the fact that it died yesterday as a Best Picture contender when SAG declined to give it a Best Ensemble nomination. The likeliest winner is…I don’t know.

Best Actress in a motion picture, drama: Cate Blanchett, Carol; Brie Larson, Room; Rooney Mara, Carol; Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn; Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl. HE comment: Larson is the presumptive favorite (am I wrong?) but HE’s rooting interest is for Ronan first and Vikander second. It’s probably safe to say that Blanchett/Mara will cancel each other out.

Best Actress in a motion picture, comedy: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy; Melissa McCarthy, Spy; Amy Schumer, Trainwreck; Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van; Lily Tomlin, Grandma. HE comment: Schumer is in the running! (Please note that I put her in an earlybird HE Oscar chart last September.) This is mainly between Lawrence and Smith; Lawrence is the likely winner…right?

Best Actor in a motion picture, drama: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant; Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl; Will Smith, Concussion. HE comment: Leo totally wins this. No way Smith prevails (not with that “I make movies to please my grandmother” remark) but he should nonetheless send a basket of fruit and a bottle of wine to THR‘s Scott Feinberg for getting him this far. Redmayne is a non-starter.

Best Actor in a motion picture, comedy: Christian Bale, The Big Short; Steve Carell, The Big Short, Matt Damon, The Martian; Al Pacino, Danny Collins; Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear. HE comment: Pacino takes it in a walk. Seriously, no clue. Bale and Carell cancel each other out so…what, Damon takes it as a consolation prize for The Martian getting rejected in yesterday’s SAG nominations?

Best Actress in a supporting role in a motion picture: Jane Fonda, Youth; Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight; Helen Mirren, Trumbo; Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs. HE comment: Fonda owns! Okay, Fonda or Vikander to win. Mirren, Winslet and especially Leigh are placeholders, thrown in to round out the pack. The chief distinction in Leigh’s performance is that she gets slugged six or seven times by Kurt Russell and winds up…okay, no spoiling.

Best Actor in a supporting role in a motion picture: Paul Dano, Love & Mercy, Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Michael Shannon, 99 Homes; Sylvester Stallone, Creed. HE comment: Strongest nominee roster of them all — it’s probably between Rylance, Dano and Stallone but don’t call Elba or Shannon slouches. I’m a Dano guy but I respect each and every performance in this category.

Best Animated feature film: Anomalisa, The Good Dinosaur, Inside Out, The Peanuts Movie, Shaun The Sheep. HE comment: I realize/accept that Inside Out will probably win but wouldn’t it be great if the HFPA struck a blow against Pixar dominance and gave a friendly backpat award to the Anomalisa team? Just once they could celebrate a handmade animated film that doesn’t have that pep-pep-peppy, family-friendly Pixar vibe.

Best Director, drama: Todd Haynes, Carol; Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant; Tom Mccarthy, Spotlight; George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road; Ridley Scott, The Martian. HE comment: Probably McCarthy but if that doesn’t happen it would be an amazing kick if Miller won. But he won’t. Inarritu won last year + The Revenant may lose support among the Animalists (i.e., those who turn against a film if shows an animal dying at the hands of humans)

Best Screenplay: Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight; Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs; Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight; Emma Donoghue, Room; Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, The Big Short. HE comment: McCarthy and Singer.

Best Foreign Language film: The Brand New Testament (Belgium / France / Luxembourg), The Club (Chile), The Fencer (Finland / Germany / Estonia), Mustang (France), Son Of Saul (Hungary). HE comment: Son of Saul.

Best Score: Carter Burwell, Carol; Alexandre Desplat, The Danish Girl, Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight; Daniel Pemberton, Steve Jobs; Ryuichi Sakamoto and Alva Noto, The Revenant. HE comment: Definitely Sakamoto and Noto but where’s the nomination for Creed‘s Ludwig Goransson?