The Golden Globe awards will begin at 5 pm Pacific, 8 pm Eastern. Never forget that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association lives in its own little world, and that their picks are…well, they’re fine but not all that consequential. The only real benefit of winning a Golden Globe award is that you get to sell the fence-sitters with your acceptance speech. Remarks that are especially eloquent, confessional or heartfelt tend to enhance or underline one’s Oscar worthiness.

I’ll be posting my usual live-blog reactions to the winners as the show progresses.

Herewith are the likeliest winners according to the Gold Derby gang along with my own likes, misgivings and prejudices:

Best Film, Drama: Not a single Gold Derby-ite is predicting a win for the most beautifully woven and emotionally seductive drama of 2017 — Luca Guadagnino‘s Call Me By Your Name. Allow me, then, to predict this, partly because it’s the only film to vote for and partly out of spite for the herd-voting mentality. The Derby-os are mostly predicting a win for Guillermo del Toro‘s The Shape of Water, which isn’t a “drama” as much as a romantic fantasy genre film –i.e., The Creature from the Love Lagoon. If Shape wins, great. But it won’t beat Lady Bird for the Best Picture Oscar.

Best Film, Comedy/Musical: The GD gang has almost unanimously predicted that Greta Gerwig‘s Lady Bird will win in a walk. HE agrees.

Best Director: The triumphant artist-poet who directed 2017’s finest film — Call Me By Your Name‘s Luca Guadagnino — hasn’t even been nominated by the HFPA so who cares? This is a joke. The Gold Derby-os are of the strong opinion that Guillermo del Toro will win. I for one would like to see Dunkirk‘s Christopher Nolan take it. Not would I mind if All The Money in the World‘s Ridley Scott wins as a gesture of respect for his last-minute nine-day re-shoot with Christopher Plummer.

Best Actor, Drama: There are more Gee Dees predicting a Gary Oldman win for his Winston Churchill than a triumph for Call Me By Your Name‘s Timothee Chalamet. I’d like to think that the relatively small group of HFPA voters might step outside the box and give the award to the younger contender. There really is no comparison between what the 22 year-old Chalamet pulls off in Luca Guadagnino‘s film vs. Oldman’s hammy, heavily-made-up performance in Darkest Hour. I’m predicting Chalamet, but I’m not confident that he’ll win.

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical: Gotta be James Franco for his Disaster Artist portrayal of the real-life Tommy Wiseau? That’s what the Gee Dees believe by an overwhelming margin. I doubt if there are enough p.c. coolios and wokers in the HFPA to push through a win for Get Out‘s Daniel Kaluuya…no!

Best Actress, Drama: The Gee Dees have Frances McDormand‘s enraged mom in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri way, WAY ahead of Shape of Water‘s Sally Hawkins. I have a feeling that the Golden Globe gang will give it to Hawkins because her performance is, was and always will be totally mute. McDormand is a superb actress, but director-writer Martin McDonagh doesn’t allow her character to grow or build into anything. Except for a moment of ambivalence or resignation at the very end. That’s something, yes, but not enough.

Best Supporting Actress: Everyone believes that Lady Bird‘s Laurie Metcalf has it in the bag. I concur.

Best Supporting Actor: The Florida Project‘s Willem Dafoe, right? The performance that should win in this category — Michael Stuhlbarg‘s in Call Me By Your Name — isn’t even nominated.