In terms of Golden Globe parties and whatnot, I’m feeling more jazzed about attending two Saturday events — a late afternoon La La Land gathering followed by an evening Paramount soiree — than the Golden Globe shindigs on Sunday. There’s no point in attending the after-events if you can’t get into a late-afternoon viewing party, and who wants to endure the shuttle-service delays (Century City to the Beverly Hilton) that interfered last year, and which will probably be repeated to some extent? (Variety‘s Daniel Holloway is reporting that “tremendous security” measures will be in effect, which sounds to me like the Ninth Circle of Hell.)

The big benefit of winning a Golden Globe award is that you get to sell the fence-sitters with your acceptance speech. Remarks that are especially eloquent, confessional or heartfelt tend to enhance or underline one’s Oscar worthiness.

HE’s predictions for the GG film contests:

Motion Picture — Drama: Definitely Manchester By The Sea. The Gold Derby gang is going for Manchester with Moonlight the runner-up. I just can’t see the gently affecting, perfectly respectable Moonlight prevailing over the emotional wallop of Manchester. For some reason Variety‘s Kris Tapley is predicting that Hacksaw Ridge will take the prize — nope.

Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy: Obviously La La Land.

Best Director: La La Land‘s Damien Chazelle.

Best Actor — Drama: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea.

Best Actress — Drama: A little man in the pit of my stomach is telling me the winner could be Elle‘s Isabelle Huppert, but I’m also thinking this little guy doesn’t get out that much. My consensus guess is that Jackie‘s Natalie Portman will take it. Tapley is predicting Arrival‘s Amy Adams….naaah.

Best Actress — Musical or Comedy: Slamdunky Emma Stone, La La Land.

Best Supporting Actor: The apparently unstoppable Mahershala Ali, who locked it down when he gave “Little” a swimming lesson in the Atlantic Ocean. Foghorn Leghorn will not sneak in and take it away — not his year.

Best Supporting Actress: FencesViola Davis — no question, no contest.

Best ScreenplayKenneth Lonergan for Manchester By The Sea.

Best Original ScoreJustin Hurwitz for La La Land. (Right?)

Best Original Song: “City of Stars” from La La Land.

Best Motion Picture — Foreign Language: Just say no to Toni Erdmann…please. My hunch is that Paul Verhoeven‘s Elle with take it.

Best Motion Picture – Animated: Hollywood Elsewhere has always had trouble generating even modest enthusiasm for the animated realm, but even I understand that the likeliest winner is Zootopia.