Gotham Award Noms, Picks

The 2016 Gotham Award nominees were announced this morning, and I’ll tell you right now that Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea will almost certainly win four of the awards — Best Feature, Best Actor (Casey Affleck), Best Screenplay (Lonergan) and Breakthrough Actor (Lucas Hedges). The ceremony will happen on Monday, 11.28 at Cipriani Wall Street.

Here are the nominations — HE’s predicted wins are in boldface caps:

Best Feature: Certain Women (d: Kelly Reichardt, IFC Films); Everybody Wants Some! (d: Richard Linklater, Paramount Pictures); MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (d: Kenneth Lonergan, Amazon/Roadside); Moonlight (d: Barry Jenkins, A24); Paterson (d: Jim Jarmusch, Amazon).

Best Documentary: Cameraperson (d: Kirsten Johnson, Janus Films); I Am Not Your Negro (d: Raoul Peck, Magnolia Pictures); O.J.: MADE IN AMERICA (d: Ezra Edelman, director, ESPN Films); Tower (D: Keith Maitland, Kino Lorber, Independent Lens); Weiner (d: Josh Kriegman, Elyse Steinberg, Sundance Selects and Showtime Documentary Films). QUALIFIER: If Edelman’s doc doesn’t win, Weiner might take it.

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award: ROBERT EGGERS for The Witch (A24); Anna Rose Holmer for The Fits (Oscilloscope Laboratories); Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Swiss Army Man (A24); Trey Edward Shults for Krisha (A24); Richard Tanne for Southside with You (Roadside Attractions/Miramax). QUALIFIER: If Eggers doesn’t win, the Swiss Army guys might.

Best Screenplay: Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan (CBS Films); Love & Friendship, Whit Stillman (Amazon Studios); Manchester by the Sea, KENNETH LONERGAN (Amazon); Moonlight, Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney; Screenplay by Barry Jenkins (A24); Paterson, Jim Jarmusch (Amazon Studios). QUALIFIER: Lonergan’s screenplay could lose to Sheridan’s Hell or High Water.

Best Actor: CASEY AFFLECK, Manchester by the Sea (Amazon Studios); Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (CBS Films); Adam Driver, Paterson (Amazon Studios); Joel Edgerton, Loving (Focus Features); Craig Robinson, Morris from America (A24).

Best Actress: Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship (Amazon Studios); Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (A24); ISABELLE HUPPERT in Elle (Sony Pictures Classics); Ruth Negga, Loving (Focus Features); Natalie Portman, Jackie (Fox Searchlight Pictures). QUALIFIER: I won’t be stunned if Portman takes it, but I’m sensing a current for Huppert.

Breakthrough Actor: Lily Gladstone, Certain Women (IFC Films); LUCAS HEDGES, Manchester by the Sea (Amazon Studios); Royalty Hightower, The Fits (Oscilloscope Laboratories); Sasha Lane, American Honey (A24); Anya Taylor-Joy, The Witch (A24).

I’m not going to list the TV nominations. The damn coding takes too long and I have another piece to finish before leaving for a 10 am screening of Michael Moore in Trumpland. Check the Variety story for further details.