The 2016 Gotham Award nominees were announced this morning, and I’ll tell you right now that Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea will almost certainly win four of the awards — Best Feature, Best Actor (Casey Affleck), Best Screenplay (Lonergan) and Breakthrough Actor (Lucas Hedges). The ceremony will happen on Monday, 11.28 at Cipriani Wall Street.

Here are the nominations — HE’s predicted wins are in boldface caps:

Best Feature: Certain Women (d: Kelly Reichardt, IFC Films); Everybody Wants Some! (d: Richard Linklater, Paramount Pictures); MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (d: Kenneth Lonergan, Amazon/Roadside); Moonlight (d: Barry Jenkins, A24); Paterson (d: Jim Jarmusch, Amazon).

Best Documentary: Cameraperson (d: Kirsten Johnson, Janus Films); I Am Not Your Negro (d: Raoul Peck, Magnolia Pictures); O.J.: MADE IN AMERICA (d: Ezra Edelman, director, ESPN Films); Tower (D: Keith Maitland, Kino Lorber, Independent Lens); Weiner (d: Josh Kriegman, Elyse Steinberg, Sundance Selects and Showtime Documentary Films). QUALIFIER: If Edelman’s doc doesn’t win, Weiner might take it.

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award: ROBERT EGGERS for The Witch (A24); Anna Rose Holmer for The Fits (Oscilloscope Laboratories); Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Swiss Army Man (A24); Trey Edward Shults for Krisha (A24); Richard Tanne for Southside with You (Roadside Attractions/Miramax). QUALIFIER: If Eggers doesn’t win, the Swiss Army guys might.

Best Screenplay: Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan (CBS Films); Love & Friendship, Whit Stillman (Amazon Studios); Manchester by the Sea, KENNETH LONERGAN (Amazon); Moonlight, Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney; Screenplay by Barry Jenkins (A24); Paterson, Jim Jarmusch (Amazon Studios). QUALIFIER: Lonergan’s screenplay could lose to Sheridan’s Hell or High Water.

Best Actor: CASEY AFFLECK, Manchester by the Sea (Amazon Studios); Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (CBS Films); Adam Driver, Paterson (Amazon Studios); Joel Edgerton, Loving (Focus Features); Craig Robinson, Morris from America (A24).

Best Actress: Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship (Amazon Studios); Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (A24); ISABELLE HUPPERT in Elle (Sony Pictures Classics); Ruth Negga, Loving (Focus Features); Natalie Portman, Jackie (Fox Searchlight Pictures). QUALIFIER: I won’t be stunned if Portman takes it, but I’m sensing a current for Huppert.

Breakthrough Actor: Lily Gladstone, Certain Women (IFC Films); LUCAS HEDGES, Manchester by the Sea (Amazon Studios); Royalty Hightower, The Fits (Oscilloscope Laboratories); Sasha Lane, American Honey (A24); Anya Taylor-Joy, The Witch (A24).

I’m not going to list the TV nominations. The damn coding takes too long and I have another piece to finish before leaving for a 10 am screening of Michael Moore in Trumpland. Check the Variety story for further details.