It was announced this morning that Jordan Peele‘s Get Out has scored four Gotham Award nominations — Best Feature, Best Breakthrough Director, Best Screenplay and Best actor (Daniel Kaluuya). Identity politics had nothing to do with this. Ditto the fact that Get Out has earned $175,484,140 domestically and $253 million worldwide. These four Gotham noms were entirely driven by the inescapable conclusion that Get Out is a delightfully on-target racial satire-cum-horror film as well as a heart-touching tribute to the films and careers of Larry Cohen and John Carpenter. Not to mention those brilliantly hypnotic special effects.

HE predictions are based on which nominees are the most politically favored by the cool kidz…

Best Feature / Call Me by Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics); The Florida Project (A24); Get Out (Universal Pictures); Good Time (A24); and I, Tonya (NEON) — Likeliest winners: Call Me By Your Name or The Florida Project.

Best Documentary / Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (Zipporah Films); Rat Film (MEMORY and Cinema Guild); Strong Island (Netflix); Whose Streets? (Magnolia Pictures); The Work (The Orchard and First Look Media) — Likeliest Winner: Ex Libris – The New York Public Library.

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award / Maggie Betts for Novitiate (Sony Pictures Classics); Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird (A24); Kogonada for Columbus (Superlative Films/Depth of Field); Jordan Peele for Get Out (Universal Pictures); Joshua Z Weinstein for Menashe (A24) — Likeliest winners: Jordan Peele or Greta Gerwig.

Best Screenplay / The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani (Amazon Studios);
Brad’s Status, Mike White (Amazon Studios); Call Me by Your Name, James Ivory (Sony Pictures Classics); Columbus, Kogonada (Superlative Films/Depth of Field); Get Out, Jordan Peele (Universal Pictures); Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig (A24) — Likeliest Winners: The Big Sick, Get Out or Lady Bird.

Best Actor / Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project (A24); James Franco in The Disaster Artist (A24); Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out (Universal Pictures); Robert Pattinson in Good Time (A24); Adam Sandler in The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Netflix); Harry Dean Stanton in Lucky (Magnolia Pictures) — Likeliest Winners: Willem Dafoe or Harry Dean Stanton (posthumously).

Best Actress / Melanie Lynskey in I Don’t Feel at Home in This World Anymore (Netflix); Haley Lu Richardson in Columbus (Superlative Films/Depth of Field); Margot Robbie in I, Tonya (NEON); Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird (A24); Lois Smith in Marjorie Prime (FilmRise) — Likeliest Winners: Saoirse Ronan or Margot Robbie.

Breakthrough Actor / Mary J. Blige in Mudbound (Netflix), Timothee Chalamet in Call Me by Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics); Harris Dickinson in Beach Rats (NEON); Kelvin Harrison, Jr. in It Comes at Night (A24); Brooklynn Prince in The Florida Project (A24) — Likeliest Winners: Timothee Chalamet or Brooklynn Prince.

Significant Kris Tapley analysis quote #1: “Nominations leader Get Out can grab more headlines before diving headlong into a season where it’s still an Oscar question mark…how far can a satire about the black experience in America really travel with Oscar voters? ” Translation: “Enjoy the Gotham and Spirit Awards nominations while you can, guys, because snagging a Best Picture nom is looking like an uphill challenge.”

Significant Kris Tapley analysis quote #2: “Could James Franco also find support from the Academy’s acting branch for his committed portrayal of the enigmatic Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist?” Answer: Forget it.