To some it wasn’t obvious that the part 3 syndrome (followup to a sequel to an original) would automatically diminish interest in Men in Black 3. Obviously not to a great extent — $19.6 million yesterday plus an $18 million Friday for a likely $56 million for the three-day weekend and $70 million including the Monday holiday — but how did anyone calculate it would make $90 million over four days?
Quality has nothing to do with an opening weekend haul. It’s always about lazy-brained Joe Schmoe expectations based on marketing. If you want to know how a film will do, ask the dumbest, least educated friend you know to drink nine or ten beers and eat junk food and then go to bed late after hitting several bars. At 7 am go over to his home and wake him up — “Whuh?” — ask him what he thinks about a film opening in two or three days time. Whatever he grunts out in his gunked-up, half-comatose state will tell you just about everything.
If you had asked this guy about MIB3 last Tuesday or Wednesday, he would have said, “Yeah, I don’t know, I guess so, I’ve heard Brolin’s good…but fucking part 3?”