The Kick-Ass projections haven’t changed — it’s still expected to come in slightly under $20 million for the weekend — but insult has now been added to injury with estimates now claiming that DreamWorks’ How To Train Your Dragon will take first place with a clean $20 million vs. $19.8 million for Kick-Ass.

The Lionsgate release was seen as a surprise short-faller yesterday morning — now it’s been humiliated by getting whipped by a three-week-old family film. Tomorrow’s actuals will tell the final tale, of course, but even if Dragon doesn’t edge out Kick-Ass by a couple of hundred thou — if there’s a near-tie, say — it’ll still be an embarassment.

The Wrap‘s Daniel Frankel reports that Dragon‘s third weekend saw a mere 19 percent drop from last weekend. It has $158 million and change from North American ticket sales alone, and has grossed $320 million worldwide.