Gold Derby‘s experts are weirdly attached to the idea of Leonardo DiCaprio becoming a big Best Actor contender in J. Edgar. Maybe, maybe…but after that dicey J. Edgar trailer I’d be hedging my bets. (In truth I’m sensing a possible fall-off down the road.) Right now the Derby boys and girls have my personal fave, Moneyball‘s Brad Pitt, in third place with 73%. The DescendantsGeorge Clooney, the most likely winner of the moment, has 100% and DiCaprio is sitting at 91%. Tinker Tailor‘s Gary Oldman is fourth with 64%.