The forthcoming Xmas season is looking weak, weak….exhibitors are crying. Prior-to-Thanksgiving holiday-tracking is always one indicator, and the only title with any kind of potential heat (i.e., build factor) is Will Smith‘s The Pursuit of Happyness (Columbia, — 12.20) — 69, 35, 3. Otherwise nothing is over 6 or a 7 in the first choice category. Night at the Museum and Dreamgirls may ignite a month from now, but right now early tracking isn’t pointing to anything really big — nothing Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter level. It’s almost all low-flamey.
The only thing that has any kind of strength this coming five-day weekend (starting on Wednesday) is Tony Scott, Jerry Bruckheimer and Denzel Washington‘s Deja Vu — 85, 43, 15. Those are good numbers, but not overwhelming — if it was going to really burn the house down the first choice would be in the 20s. It could maybe reach $50 million as of Sunday evening.
Deck The Halls (20th Century Fox, 11.22) is looking okay — 71, 25, and 4….but the survey guys aren’t talking to the kids. For Your Consideration (Warner Independent) is mezzo-mezzo — 26, 23 and 1. The Fountain (one toke over the line, sweet Jesus) is at 44, 24 and 3. Tenacious D — 63, 27 and 5. Bobby…57, 35 (decent), first choice 7…but not overwhelming.
The Nativity (New Line, 12.1) is at 38, 27 and 2. Apocalypto (Touchstone, 12.8) is 53, 22…negative number (i.e., definitely not interested) are at 14 and holding…and the first choice is 2. The negatives and the first choice haven’t moved — that means trouble. Blood Diamond (Warner Bros., 12.8) is puttering along — 58, 31 and 4. The Holiday (Columbia, 12.8) — 61, 25 and 2…not much. Eragon , 38, 30 3.
No numbers yet on the other prospective biggies. Night at the Museum (20th Century Fox, 12.20) is supposed to be pretty good, and it may take off big-time. Dreamgirls (Dreamamount) isn’t opening wide until 12.25 — early numbers will be in tomorrow.