THR columnist Scott Feinberg doesn’t have any supernatural insights into award season positionings, but in terms of Best Picture predicting he does have the ability to pass along Robert Louis Stevenson‘s “black spot“, so to speak.
What I mean is that if Feinberg classifies a presumed Best Picture contender as a “major threat” or a “possibility,” that’s pretty much the kiss of death. And so, by this system, Feinberg is essentially declaring that 14 films are somewhere between damaged goods and dead meat.
Feinberg’s Frontrunners are pretty much the same ones that everyone else is favoring,
Here are my agreements and disagreements, top to bottom:
Frontrunners:
Everything Everywhere All at Once (STRONG DISAGREEMENT — it will be an absolute tragedy for the film industry if this film wins)
The Fabelmans (turning into a fizzler — doesn’t have the mojo)
Avatar 2: The Way of Water (Likely Best Picture winner?)
Top Gun: Maverick (2nd most likely winner)
The Banshees of Inisherin (alienating finger stumps)
Elvis (will never win — being mentioned to round out the pack)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (forget it)
Babylon (admirably excessive)
Tár (AGREE)
Women Talking (forget it)
Major Death Threats:
The Woman King (Sony — HE agrees)
She Said (Universal — HE strongly disagrees as She Said is grade–A all the way — one of the best crafted films in the Best Picture race)
Triangle of Sadness (Neon — winner of the European Film Award for Best Feature + winner of the Palme d’Or — not as good as The Square)
RRR (Variance — deservedly out of contention)
Nope (Universal — forget it)
Till (UAR — Danielle Deadwyler is the contender, not the film itself)
Thirteen Lives (Amazon — HE disagrees but at the same time I understand)
Possibilities / D.O.A.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (forget it)
Armageddon Time (HE disagrees — this is one of the best films of the year)
Living (No match for Ikiru)
A Man Called Otto (forget it)
Empire of Light (STRONG DISAGREEMENT — Sam Mendes‘ period drama is HE’s pick for the Best Film of the Year)
The Whale (forget it)
Aftersun (ditto)