Filed this afternoon by The Hollywood Reporter‘s Scott Feinberg: “Marriage Story‘s Laura Dern has long been the frontrunner for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar, but there was a sense that she might have a hard time beating HustlersJennifer Lopez with the HFPA, which could have shaken things up overall. Dern has always been an HFPA fave — she was once Miss Golden Globe, and had four other Globe wins heading into the night — so she was not to be discounted.

“But the fact that J-Lo couldn’t win [last night] with the HFPA — a group that loves mega-stars so much it gave Lady Gaga a Globe for her acting on American Horror Story: Hotel — makes one seriously question if she can win anywhere.”