14 out of 26 Gold Derby “experts” have put Green Book‘s Mahershala Ali at the top of their Best Supporting Actor spitball lists. That’s roughly a 60% consensus, and you can bet that some didn’t pick Mahershala because he won a Best Supporting Actor Oscar less than two years ago for his Moonlight performance.

Ali had…what, four or five scenes in Barry Jenkins‘ Best Picture winner, if that? But his Don Shirley performance in Green Book lasts all through the film and abounds with pleasure — it’s almost a lead. In fact you could argue it is a lead performance, but that argues with Mahershala’s (or his p.r. team’s) strategy.

Mahershala is listed second on six Gold Derby lists. Face it — he’s almost a lock.

Ali’s strongest Best Supporting Actor competitor, Beautiful Boy‘s Timothy Chalamet, appears at the top of seven lists.