Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil has written that Lincoln is “looking good” for the Best Picture Oscar, “but don’t wager money on it…it’s not a lock. Lincoln will probably have the biggest tally when nominations are announced on January 10th and that’s key. The movie with the most bids wins the top Oscar about 75% of the time. However, it’s very vulnerable and its rivals are strong.”

O’Neil suspects that Lincoln won’t win Best Picture from the Critics’ Choice Awards on January 10th “and that usually matters a lot,” he writes. “Over the past 10 years, that trophy has successfully forecasted the top Oscar seven times.” O’Neil looks at average 2012 scores given to the Best Picture nominees by members of the Critics’ Choice voting group (i.e., the BFCA) and notes that Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and Silver Linings Playbook have scored higher than Lincoln.