As far as I can foresee we’re looking at 16 possible Oscar-calibre films due in 2013. I can predict one thing for sure: between his lead roles in Saving Mr. Banks and Captain Phillips Tom Hanks is looking at an almost certain Best Actor nomination. The only other guarantee is that Lee Daniels’ The Butler will be a fiasco, but you knew assumed that going in.

In the order of likely quality, the probable picks of 2013:

(1) John WellsAugust: Osage County;

(2) Alexander Payne‘s Nebraska;

(3) Alfonso Cuaron‘s Gravity;

(4) George Clooney‘s Monuments Men (a.k.a., cousin of The Train);

(5) Paul Greengrass‘s Captain Phillips;

(6) Martin Scorsese‘s Wolf of Wall Street;

(7) Jason Reitman‘s Labor Day;

(8) Joel and Ethan Coen‘s Inside Llewyn Davis;

(9) Bennett Miller‘s Foxcatcher;

(10) John Lee Hancock‘s Saving Mr. Banks;

(11) Ridley Scott‘s The Counselor;

(12) Spike Jonze‘s Her;

(13) Spike Lee‘s Oldboy;

(14) Luc Besson‘s Malavita;

(15) Steve McQueen‘s 12 Years A Slave;

(16) Baz Luhrman‘s The Great Gatsby (which might have issues).

If you want to be liberal about it there is also Terrence Malick‘s two ventures — the film formerly known as Lawless plus Knight of Cups (neither of which might not be released until 2014 or 2015…you know Malick).

One could also include Ben Stiller‘s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Nicholas Winding Refn‘s Only God Forgives, Ron Howard‘s Rush and David Cronenberg‘s Maps to the Stars. (Thanks to HE readers bfm and Jeremy Baril.)

Not to mention Neill Blomkamp‘s Elysium, Joseph Kosinski‘s Oblivion, Robert Schwentke‘s R.I.P.D., Steven Spielberg‘s Robopocalypse, Sam Raimi‘s Oz: The Great and Powerful, Ruben Fleischer‘s The Gangster Squad, Guillermo del Toro‘s Pacific Rim and David Fincher‘s 20,000 Leagues Under The Sea: Captain Nemo.