We all know that Bradley Cooper‘s A Star Is Born is going to enjoy an historic opening weekend at the box-office, but what about the award-season payoff?

Will Hollywood indeed rename itself “Cooperstown” over the next four-plus months and offer him the ultimate coronation on Oscar night with a Kris Tapley-predicted win of one, two, three or even more Oscars?

Or will a significant sector of the cognoscenti settle into the emerging consensus view, which is that (a) the first half is quite good but not so much the second half and (b) at the end of the day five or six nominations plus strong revenue might be enough?

Is Lady Gaga a Best Actress lock or is she more like a good, spongey student who was smart and receptive enough to let Cooper take her into the right places? Is Cooper locked for a double Oscar noms, Best Director and Best Actor? Cooper and Tapley are waiting with bated breath for your thoughts and meditations.

I’m not trying to be a dick about this. I honestly liked a lot of what Cooper was selling — most of it, in fact. Lady Gaga really got to me. I’m just not Bobby Peru.