I was a little shocked by a 4.2 Public Policy Polling survey that has Barack Obama edging Hillary Clinton among likely Pennsylvania Democratic voters by 45% to 43%. I thought the big hope for the Obama team was to lose to Clinton in the Keystone State by 10 percentage points or less. I called PPP’s Dean Debnan to ask what’s happening. He said his team was surprised also “so we went back and ran the survey a second time with a different group of respondents,” etc. And the numbers are the numbers.
PPP surveyed 1224 likely Democratic primary voters on March 31st and again on April 1st.
The survey claims that Obama is “narrowing the gap with white voters, trailing just 49-38, while maintaining his customary significant advantage with black voters, [leading] that group 75-17. Obama also leads among all age groups except senior citizens, with whom Clinton has a 50-34 advantage. The poll shows the standard gender gap with Obama leading by 15 points among men while trailing by 10 points with women.”
Public Policy Polling release says it has had “the most accurate numbers of any company in the country for the Democratic primaries in South Carolina and Wisconsin, as well as the closest numbers for any organization that polled the contests in both Texas and Ohio.”