It’s a toss-up as to whether Donald Trump‘s loss to Ted Cruz or the Bernie-Hillary tie was last night’s biggest surprise, but I was so convinced Trump had it won and that Hillary would edge out Bernie that I didn’t even check the results until 10 pm or thereabouts. But all Bernie supporters should enjoy the moment; ditto his New Hampshire victory next week. Because it’s going to get a lot tougher for him when African-American voters start weighing in. (I was beaten up yesterday for trying to explain why black voters overwhelmingly prefer Hillary to Bernie, according to surveys. Is it okay to say that polls strongly indicate this, or should I just ignore this factor altogether for fear of angering the bullshit brigade?) N.Y. Times reporter Amy Chozick has written about the psychological wounding that the Clinton campaign experienced last night while “Upshot” analyst Nate Cohn argued a “virtual tie” in Iowa is better for Hillary Clinton than Bernie Sanders.

Update (10:07 a.m. Pacific, February 2, 2016): “The Associated Press on Tuesday declared Hillary Clinton the winner of the Iowa caucuses, in a narrow victory over Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential race. Iowa Democratic Party chairman Andy McGuire said, ‘Hillary Clinton has been awarded 699.57 state delegate equivalents, Bernie Sanders has been awarded awarded 695.49 state delegate equivalents.” Victory!