It’s perfectly allowable that Jeffrey Dean Morgan, who will play Edward Blake (.a.k.a., “the Comedian”) in Zack Snyder‘s Watchmen, looks like Javier Bardem‘s younger, fuller-faced brother. But it’s always a bit of a problem when actors seem to resemble each other too much. This is a request, therefore, for the most glaring “separated at birth” duos out there right now. I would have supplied at least two or three, but I ran out of my Gingko Biloba pills two weeks ago.

Jeffrey Dean Morgan, Javier Bardem

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Building on data from pollster.com, four days ago centerforpolitics.org ran a article by Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato called “The Myth of a Toss-Up Election.” It basically said that the electoral total from states that are strong or leaning for Barack Obama is 287, the electoral total from states strong or leaning for John McCain is 147 and the electoral total from the remaining swing states is 107. Their point is that Obama can lose every swing state out there and still win, 287 to 253.
“‘Too close to call.’ ‘Within the margin of error.’ ‘A statistical dead heat,'” the article begins. “If you’ve been following news coverage of the 2008 presidential election, you’re probably familiar with these phrases. Media commentary on the presidential horserace, reflecting the results of a series of new national polls, has strained to make a case for a hotly contested election that is essentially up for grabs.
“Signs of Barack Obama’s weaknesses allegedly abound. The huge generic Democratic Party advantage is not reflected in the McCain-Obama pairings in national polls. Why, according to the constant refrain, hasn’t Obama put this election away? A large number of Clinton supporters in the primaries refuse to commit to Obama ((i.e., PUMAs). White working class and senior voters tilt decidedly to McCain. Racial resentment limits Obama’s support among these two critical voting blocs. Enthusiasm among young voters and African-Americans, two groups strongly attracted to Obama, is waning. Blah, blah, blah.
“While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain’s prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed — historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months — point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November.
“Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain’s favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up.”
Except the PUMAs do seem to be holding back, the racial chasm in this country is wide and deep, the conservative-value bubbas are just as stupid and clueless as they’ve ever been, and don’t forget Jake Tusing and Colin Clemens, those two guys from American Teen who say they won’t be voting because politics is not for them. How many tens of thousands of under-25s who think this way are out there, sitting on their hands? A lot, I’ll bet.

Now that the dust has settled on that two-day-old story about Ridley Scott‘s Nottingham temporarily going south, surely someone has read a recent draft of the script and could pass along thoughts about why there were “script concerns”? Gregg Kilday‘s Hollywood Reporter story says the plug was pulled over that plus “labor unrest” (i.e., a possible SAG strike) and “location logistics.”

I was speaking this morning with a producer friend about Shia Lebeouf‘s DUI bang-on collision yesterday morning (i.e., late Saturday night), and this triggered a story that was passed along second-hand from a trusted friend about another celebrity-drinking incident involving Harrison Ford and Calista Flockhart, as well as the non-drinking Demi Moore and Ashton Kutcher.
“It happened maybe 45 days ago, a week or two after the opening of Indy 4,” I was told. “Harrison, Calista, Demi and Ashton all went out to dinner. The latter two weren’t drinking but over the course of dinner the first two had…I don’t know, two or three bottles of wine between them and got fairly loaded. Too drunk to drive, in any case. It was therefore decided — responsibly, intelligently — that Ashton would drive Harrison home in his car, and Demi would follow with Calista in her car.
“But somehow Demi lost Ashton at a traffic light, and Ashton and Harrison are now heading towards Ford’s home in the Pacific Palisades on their own, presuming that Demi will catch up. Except Calista has succumbed to the alcohol and passed out. Okay, ‘gone to sleep.’ Dead to the world, in any event. Demi tries to rouse her so she can get the directions and the address, but with no luck.” (Wells note: they didn’t type in the address on the GPS software on their Blackberry or iPhone before leaving the restaurant?)
“So as she’s driving along, Demi starts prodding and shaking Calista with her right hand to wake her up to get the address, and as a result of the shoving the car slows down and weaves a bit, and as luck would have it a couple of patrolmen notice this and pull them over. Have you been drinking? No, Demi answers. I was trying wake up my passenger to get directions to her home. Has she been drinking? Demi doesn’t want to say, says she doesn’t know. The cops suspect inebriation despite Moore’s denials — “I haven’t been drinking! I don’t drink!” — and make her do the walk and touch her nose and all that.
“Meanwhile, Harrison and Ashton have arrived at Ford’s home. It’s been a little while and they’re wondering what’s happened to the ladies. Ashton calls Demi on her cell and by this time she’s being questioned by the cops and they’re saying ‘no answering the phone while you’re being tested for intoxication.’ Harrison says to Ashton, “You want an omelette? It’ll calm you down.” Uhh, not really, Kutcher replies, having just eaten an hour or so ago. Ford leads him into the kitchen anyway and starts on the omelette. ‘You want herbs? You want cheese? You want onions?’
“Back on the road, the combined efforts of Moore and the two cops finally wake Flockhart up. It’s like she’s coming out of a coma. One of the lawmen ask, ‘Do you know where you live?’ She gives them the address and they all get into their cars with the understanding that the bulls will escort Demi and Calista to the house. A few minutes later Harrison and Ashton see the flashing lights outside and respond as you might expect — “Oh my God, are you guys okay?,’ ‘What happened?,’ ‘Why didn’t you answer your phone?’ The cops say goodnight and leave, all’s well that ends well, and everyone’s safe and sound. And again Harrison says, ‘So…who wants an omelette?'”
It’s just a story, I haven’t called to verify, but the source swears it comes from a reliable person, etc.

An ominous prediction is contained in this Dark Knight analysis from Morgan Stanley guy Evan Boucher, to wit: “So TDK did $75 million on its second weekend for a 10-day tally of about $314 million. Well and good, but I’m nonetheless persuaded that this is the last $500 million (or possibly $400 million) theatrical release you or I will ever see.
“It’s obvious that The Dark Knight is an extremely rare combination of a hundred different things it has going for it, but unlike Star Wars and Titanic, where you had small numbers of people going 3, 4 or 7 times, The Dark Knight has had, judging from what I’ve seen, larger numbers of people going twice, even if only to get a firm handle on the story.
“If and when this hits $500 million, the question will have to be ‘how do you recreate all the things that needed to happen for this to get to that mark? Even if TDK crosses the $500 million mark it’s fairly assured that it won’t overtake Titanic (which ended up with a domestic total of $600 million) unless there’s a December re-release before the DVD is available.
“In any event, the theatrical clock is ticking. Just as VHS changed the way people watch movies, and as DVD continued that evolution starting in the late ’90s, everyone has to just shut up and admit that people are going to be watching new-release mainstream feature films in their homes on opening night within the next two years and multiplexes will be folding like origami.
“Maybe the studios will make more money that way, but, like Blockbuster Video, the days of the megaplex uber-blockbuster are over. The likely scenario is that for theater releases, The Dark Knight is the last unicorn.”

A reasonably well-sussed report about the accomplishments of Endeavor, the flush and well-connected Hollywood agency, tabulated by the N.Y. Times‘ Michael Ceiply.

Endeavor guys Adam Venit (front) and, from left, Patrick Whitesell, Rick Rosen, Tom Strickler and Ari Emanuel. Times photo by Jamie Rector.

The myth about media constantly giving Barack Obama super-favorable coverage befitting a rock star has been debunked by the Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University. Their report has been summarized by L.A. Times columnist James Rainey. Sidenote: A Middle East-European tour bump for Obama over McCain, 49 to 40.

Terrence Rafferty has written persuasively about Patti Smith: Dream of Life, the Jay Sebring doc that will play at the Film Forum from August 6th through 19th. I tumbled big-time at the Sundance Film Festival and have been waiting for a chance to see it again. Has Palm Pictures announced a booking in Los Angeles? To my knowledge, they have not. They can’t get a decent booking in this town?

I never eat Kentucky Fried Chicken anyway so I don’t feel all that culpable. Nonetheless, what this video shows is vile and loathsome. Will the underclass fat-asses who gorge on KFC several times a week pay the slightest attention or experience even a moment’s hesitation as they order up that next barrel? I agree with and admire the otherwise comical Pamela Anderson for trying to do something about it. Her suggestion that eating too much meat will result in poor sexual performance is, I feel, a fairly clever argument.

“Of course, the best thing that you can do to help animals is to stop eating them, so please consider trying a vegetarian diet — just like me,” she says. “And if you don’t think animal cruelty is a strong enough argument for vegetarianism you might want to at least read up on how eating meat causes impotence and slows the flow of blood to all the organs, not just to the heart, if you catch my drift.”

The plan is to hump down to the American Cinematheque this evening and see John Boorman‘s Point Blank (on a big screen for the first time in my moviegoing life) and get back for either the 10 pm or 11 pm showing of the debut episode of the second Mad Men season.

A friend told me today he’d “only seen the Mel Gibson remake” of this classic 1967 noir. He meant Brian Helgeland‘s extremely troubled Payback, which pretty much sucked eggs when compared to the Boorman. It was ultimately shown in two different versions — the cynical whammy-chart cut that Paramount put into theatres in ’99 and the longer and more layered Helgeland version that came out on DVD eight years later.

Five years ago I was pushing Melissa Leo as a Best Supporting Actress contender for her knockout performance as Benicio del Toro‘s partner in 21 Grams, but not enough people agreed so the the ball never got rolling. But now she’s back in the arena with a striking performance as a poor single mom involved in illegal- immigrant smuggling in Frozen River (Sony Classics, 8.1). Karen Durbin has profiled Leo in this N.Y. Times piece, published today.

Times photo of Melissa Leo by Randy Harris.

HE reader Adam Davenport, who caught Frozen River six months ago at Sundance, feels that Leo’s performance is “not just powerful [but] reminiscent of the blue-collar heroine rarely seen since the days of Sissy Spacek, Gene Rowlands and Sally Field. I think Ms. Leo may very well surprise a lot of people this year as she is an actor\’s actor and well-respected by her peers in the Academy and the reviews have been nothing less than stellar for her.
“A small gritty indie film that may attract serious award consideration for its lead thesp, Frozen River could be this year\’s Half Nelson, Away From Her, Transamerica, Monster’s Ball, Hustle & Flow, Whale Rider or Maria Full of Grace. Given that in the past few years at least a few indies from Sundance each year have managed to get nominations, what other Sundance films are up for consideration this year other than Man on Wire and American Teen in documentary?
“I’m also sick of the same handful of actresses being nominated for the same awards every year, and it would be refreshing to see this underrated but deserving middle-aged actress break through finally after years of delivering consistently excellent performances. She should have been nominated for supporting in 21 Grams.”