“Many of Nikki Finke‘s spoilers are accurate, but some are not,” writes Envelope contributor Steve Pond declared last night. “Don’t believe what she says about all acting awards being pushed to the last third of the show.” The Best Supporting Actor and Actress awards, he means.

“Were you ever raped by Eddie Murphy or what? He must have done some kind of personal bad to you. Having said that, boy, do I ever agree with you. That guy is a world-class arrogant prick. If he wins this he’ll be impossible to live with. He also does not deserve it. Its a shallow bullshit performance that is meritorious only for his musical and dancing talents. I said Arkin weeks ago.” — e-mail received this morning from a director friend who’s obviously not to be trusted despite first-hand experience.

“[Oscar voters] tell the pollster, you or whomever, that they are voting for the serious gravitas-filled downer, Babel. But, mark my words, they are secretly voting for the pic that is their guilty pleasure, either Sunshine or Departed.'” — posted by a N.Y. Times reader named Judy in response to a “Bagger” piece. Something about the conciseness and sense of certainty in this remark has given me pause. I’m suddenly thinking I might be wrong in predicting Babel to win. I need to think this over.

“Oh. she’s an inninvala, invala…an invalid…it’s practically like living alone.”

Film Stew‘s Brent Buckalew (is that a nom de plume?) complains about a “horde of internet diarists and fanboys pounding on their keyboards in protest” about this year’s Oscar nominees, and urges “enough already, give it a rest.” Not a bad rant, but it’s been posted about two or three weeks too late.

In Contention‘s Kris Tapley is predicting that Letters From Iwo Jima will take the Best Picture Oscar. A little voice was telling me this might happen about two or three weeks ago, but I told it to be quiet. I was actually a little ruder than that.

I know that as much as I admired Letters when I saw it in Manhattan in December, and as moved as I was by Ken Watanabe‘s lead performance, I haven’t put the Warner Bros. screener into my DVD player since it arrived. On the other hand, I’ve watched The Departed twice. That probably means something.

“If Little Miss Sunshine beats The Departed, I expect Martin Scorsese to pull out a machine-gun and fire randomly into the voting members as they run screaming for the exits. And he’d be within his rights, too.” — from John Patterson‘s 2.23 well-founded Guardian rant, called “Oscar’s Greatest Crimes.”

“Little Miss Sunshine hit so big because it isn’t afraid to mix laughs and darkness. It’s hip enough for the urban elites but not so hip that it’s sailing over the heads of regular paying customers. It’s a very sophisticated, equal-opportunity entertainer.” — observation from Lewis Beale‘s New York Newsday piece about why LMS went over as well as it did.

The 9% Rotten Tomatoes rating that The Number 23 has gotten so far matches Norbit‘s (i.e., also at 9%). I missed the Number 23 screening on 2.15; the 9%, paradoxically, makes me want to rush down and see it at the 4 pm show. A perverse impulse, to be sure.

David Fincher‘s Zodiac (Paramount, 3.2) got two rave reviews today — from Variety‘s Todd McCarthy and the Holly- wood Reporter‘s Michael Rechtshaffen — and it opens a week from Friday, and yet the brainiacs at Metacritic don’t even have it in their database.

HE’s final Oscar calls, and thank God I won’t have to tap out these names and movies in tandem ever again in this context after Sunday :

Best Picture: The Departed;

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed (LOCK);

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland (LOCK) (although my personal preference: is for Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed / sentimental favorite: Peter O’Toole in Becket…sorry, Venus;

Best Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen (LOCK);

Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine (By a nosehair, if it happens). I realize/understand that the ogre Eddie Murphy will probably win; I know it and I can’t predict it because it hurts too much.

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls (recent Hudson slippage, but still a NEAR-LOCK);

Best Adapted Screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed (NEAR-LOCK);

Best Original Screenplay: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine (LOCK);

Best Animated Feature: Cars;

Best Foreign Language Film: Florian von Henckel Donmnersmarck’s The Lives of Others, which is a far more emotionally affecting film in the final analysis than Guillermo del Toro’s brilliant but Pan’s Labyrinth, which leaves you feeling just a wee bit abandoned at the end. I’ve just changed my prediction in this category (Fridayt, 2:12 pm), and it could wind up costing me real money on Sunday night. I’m just listening to my inner voice; just because the handicappers think Pan’s Labyrinth will win doesn’t mean they necessarily know anything.

Best Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth…no, Dreamgirls….no, Pan’s Labyrinth…I don’t know.

Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, Children of Men (LOCK);

Best Costume Design: Dreamgirls;

Best Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth;

Best Documentary Short: The Blood Of Yingzhou District (Alt: Two Hands;

Best Film Editing: Stephen Mirrione, Babel (although my personal preference is for Thelma Schoonmaker‘s work on The Departed);

Best Makeup: Pan’s Labyrinth;

Best Original Music Score: The Queen (although my personal preference is for Gustavo Santaolla’s work on Babel;

Best Original Song: “I Need to Wake Up” from An Inconvenient Truth;

Best Animated Short Film: The Little Matchgirl

Best Live-Action Short: West Bank Story (go to Oscar Torrents for best predictions about shorts;

Best Sound Editing: Letters from Iwo Jima;

Best Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls;

Best Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.

Praise God a bit more: critic David Ehrenstein confirmed on the Criterion forums a week and a half ago that Criterion will be issuing a DVD of Lindsay Anderson‘s If…., which I’m been pushing for since the turn of the century, sometime in June. If… isn’t mentioned on the Criteron Co. site, but Ehrenstein said he’s written the notes and that they’re putting it out — good enough for me.

A ’60s rebellion allegory that brilliantly captures the rage and excitement of a revolution in poetic fantasy terms, If… begins as a relatively straightforward story of a few teenaged malcontents — Malcolm McDowell‘s Mick Travis being the ringleader — coping with the routine humiliations imposed upon students by the priggish staff of a military-minded British private school.

But this 1969 film (based on a script called “Crusaders,” by David Sherwin and John Howlett) gradually becomes more and more surreal, and not just in a political vein.

That look of fierce concentrated rage in McDowell’s eyes as he and his friends fire their automatic weapons from a rooftop at their public-school enemies….that’s the whole ’60s up-against-the-wall mania in a nutshell. Stanley Kubrick hired McDowell to portray “Alex” in A Clockwork Orange because of how thoroughly he rocked as If…‘s romantic-anarchic hero.

Was If… the first mainstream commercial drama to mix color and black-and-white footage in an impressionist vein? Something tells me another film or two did it first, but no titles are coming to mind.

Supposedly McDowell recorded a commentary about the film years ago — let’s hope it turns up on the DVD. Reader Max Evry has written than “in a perfect world [the Criterion If…disc] would include a doc pointing out the distinct influence of Jean Vigo‘s Zero For Conduct as well as one about director Lindsay Anderson.