Examine fivethirtyeight.com and tell me if you’ve come across a more thorough-seeming scientific data site about the coming election. Site creator-manager Nate Silver told MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann yesterday that the margin of error is high right now (7%) but that things will start to sharpen and clarify a bit more after the conventions and particularly after the first debate. Nonetheless, fivethirtyeight.com is now forecasting Obama over McCain with 294.7 to 243.3 electoral votes.

And HuffPost-er Mark Nickolas on “Why The Media Badly Needs A History Lesson.”