Three years and eight months seems like a long time ago in this context. It’s kind of startling to consider how so many people were convinced that Jordan Peele‘s Get Out was the absolute shit, and that it looked like a Best Picture Oscar winner. Imagine. Time sure does change perceptions. Woke-think had only begun to flex its muscles a few months earlier.

Posted on 2.26.18: Yesterday on Facebook HE’s own Jordan Ruimy again predicted that Jordan Peele‘s Get Out will win the Best Picture Oscar. Then he doubled-down on Twitter this morning.

What he means is that Get Out, a half creepy, half satiric, racially-stamped Stepford Wives, will slipslide into a win because a huge number of Academy members have it down as their #2 or #3 choice, and that the “kooky” preferential ballot will do the rest.

Hollywood Elsewhere says no way. I’m not even sure that Get Out will win the Best Original Screenplay Oscar, which will most likely be won by Three Billboards‘ Martin McDonagh. It might win in this category, but forget Best Picture — the apparent momentum of the last week has all been with Three Billboards with everyone assuming that The Shape of Water‘s Guillermo del Toro will take Best Director.

I’ll say this much: One thing favoring Get Out is that the people who love it really love it, while the Three Billboards and Shape of Water crowd is more composed of likers and accomodationists.

HE arguments & agreements with Facebook comments:

“That would be great but I doubt it” — Alex Conn. HE: “What exactly would be ‘great’ about Get Out winning Best Picture? Great in what way? And how likely is this? A clever, financially successful genre film that says upscale liberal whites are just as odious as Charlottesville racists — who in AcademyLand really believes that?”

“It’s a good movie but not Oscar-worthy. The academy will give it the old ‘good effort, good try’ treatment come Oscar time. My money is on Three Billboards.” — Trexis Griffin. HE to Griffin: “But that’s the new thing — a significant portion of the new membership does consider genre fare like Get Out to be Oscar-worthy.”

“Nah. Too genre for Oscar. This one screams Best Original Screenplay.” — Tim Fuglei. HE comment: And possibly not even that.

“Jordan, will you eat a bug if wrong?” — Jay Smith. HE to Ruimy: Seriously — what act of contrition will you actually perform if you’re wrong?

“It’s Get Out or Three Billboards. There are good and bad reasons for both. Three Billboards is actor-driven and actors dominate [in the voting]. Get Out could win, but you have to wonder how the BAFTAs had the option of choosing it to win Best Picture but went with Three Billboards for both Best Picture and Best British film? Between that and having no SAG ensemble nom is why I am not predicting Get Out to win, but it is one of three that could. I have no idea what will win.” — Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone.

“I know Leonard Maltin really liked it.” — Michael Thomas. HE to Thomas: Leonard is a very bright and knowledgable fellow, but temperamentally he’s an accommodationist.

‘I’ve never seen Universal invest so much in an Oscar campaign before.” — Andrew Harbold. HE to Harbold: “Then why didn’t they throw me a few shekels?”

“Out of the ones I’ve seen Three Billboards is miles ahead in terms of quality of the others. Billboards aside I’ve seen Get Out, Ladybird, Shape of Water, Ladybird and Call Me By Your Name.” — Paul Gordon. HE to Gordon: I’m sorry but you’re mistaken. The best film of the year is Call Me By Your Name, followed by Dunkirk and Lady Bird.

“I bloody hope Get Out wins. I’m writing my dissertation on the Academy’s consistent ignorance of the horror genre and if Get Out wins then it will certainly help my ultimate thesis — that horror is experiencing a renaissance both in quality and in critical reception. We’ll see, it’s very worthy.” — Ryan Murphy. HE to Murphy: With the exceptions of Get Out, The Witch, The Babadook and very few others, the horror genre is a sewage system.”

“I think I might finally be coming off the Get Out train, and I’m switching to Three Billboards. But I do think Get Out has a shot and is close. McDonagh winning at BAFTA didn’t sway me.” — David Baruffi. HE to Baruffi: “Coming off the Get Out train” = you’re woke or, you know, you’ve come out of the fog.

“I appreciate Get Out, but damn if it isn’t the most overrated film of the past five years or so. It’s a well-crafted yet inherently silly genre movie that has gained notoriety for the outlandish theories/messages people have applied to it, as opposed to what it actually is. If it wins Best Picture I feel like the Academy voters are saving face for past questionable selections rather than choosing something that truly deserves the award.” — Mike LeChevallier.

“I’d be surprised if Get Out’s inherent point — white liberals are the worst of the worst — makes the sale.” — legendary critic-journalist Harlan Jacobson.

“A collection of really lousy films vying for the Golden Dildo Hollywood BS award…oh, goodie.” — Jon Jost. HE to Jost: There’s not a lot of gushing ecstatic passion out there, I’ll give you that.

“It’s the year of ladies, so Lady Bird.” — Mustafa Mukeef.

“Get Out is the only movie from 2017 that people will still be talking about 10 years from now.” — Brian Fox. HE to Fox: Wrong — the reputations of Dunkirk and Call Me By Your Name will grow and grow as the years push on. Get Out has already started to fade. People have seen through it. Game over.”

“If Get Out wins, it’s only because somebody is paying someone else for it to win. It’s a piece of dog poop with one of the dumbest endings ever.” — E.B. Hughes.