With this blow-dryer joke, it’s safe to say that Penelope Cruz has the Best Supporting Actress Oscar in the bag. Maybe she already had it and this is icing on the cake. Whatever. I do know that 65-and-over male Academy members (i.e., the Lorenzo Semple, Jr. crowd) have a rep for responding to alluring female contenders. From this point those who haven’t yet voted will be thinking the following about Cruz: (a) great firecracker performance in the Woody Allen film, (b) beautiful, (c) superb in Volver and (b) blowjob joke on Leno. That cinches it.

The question I haven’t settled is whether Kate Winslet will take the Best Actress Oscar for The Reader or if — this is a tangle — uncertainty about what category her Reader performance really and truly belongs in plus Meryl Streep‘s popularity with the acting branch (i.e., that SAG Best Actress award) will upset the apple cart.