On one hand the SAG ensemble award nomination of Spike Lee‘s Da 5 Bloods is a harbinger of Oscar favor…no? There’s also the view that the Golden Globe shutout (no Best Picture nom, Delroy Lindo cold-cocked) is not really consequential or predictive at all in terms of Oscar favor. The SAG ensemble thing matters much more, I’m told. But another handicapper says the previous view is wrong, and that 12 films that were nominated for the SAG ensemble award have failed to snag a Best Picture nomination (12 SAG shortfallers) while only six Golden Globe nominees failed to land a Best Pic nom. The bottom line is that the Globes have a better Oscar track record than SAG.
And what about the BAFTA long list? 15 directors are on that roster (including The Mauritanian‘s Kevin Macdonald) ) but not Spike Lee. He’s a big enough brand-name helmer that he should be able to make the long list. On the other hand the same handicapper believes that Lindo has a decent chance. Lindo has won Best Actor trophies from the Boston, Chicago and New York critics. On top of which there’s the “if you don’t vote for Lindo, you’re probably a closet racist” card. Between the merit and the guilt, Lindo is probably in pretty good shape. Many admire his performance. My guess is that he lands a nomination but probably won’t win. Sorry but my gut says what it says.