I’ll be driving over to the Patton Oswalt-hosted Spirit Awards in Santa Monica around 10:15 am. Chilly temps and rainy weather obviously mean suppression as far as the outdoor schmoozy stuff is concerned. (Phase One is a 150-minute party starting at 11 am; Phase Two is the show’s taping from 1:30 pm to 3:30 pm.) Alexander Payne, Cate Blanchett Jeff Nichols, Bruce Dern, Matthew McConaughey, J.C. Chandor, Steve McQueen, Lupita Nyong’o, Richard Linklater, Robert Redford and dozens of other distinguished coolios will be milling around. The show will air on IFC tonight.

My know-nothing predictions:

Best Feature: 12 Years A Slave, All Is Lost, Frances Ha, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska. Predicted Winner: 12 Years A Slave. This seems certain as the Spirits will want to set themselves apart from the old-fart Academy members who either don’t “like” Slave (largely due to resentment of the film’s mostly negative portrayal of whites) or haven’t even watched the screener.

Best Director: Shane Carruth (Upstream Color); J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost); Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave); Jeff Nichols (Mud), Alexander Payne (Nebraska). Predicted Winner: Most likely McQueen but possibly Payne.

Best Female Lead: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), Gaby Hoffmann (Crystal Fairy), Brie Larson (Short Term 12), Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now). Predicted Winner: Will the Spirits copycat the Oscars by awarding Blanchett, or will they do the better identity thing and give the award to Brie Larson? Fearing the former, hoping for the latter.

Best Male Lead: Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Michael B Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club; Robert Redford, All Is Lost. Predicted Winner: The Spirits should give it up for Dernsy or Redford — same copycat equation applies if they give it to McConaughey, who has the Best Actor Oscar in the bag.

Best Screenplay: Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater, Before Midnight; Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said; Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Spectacular Now; John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave. Predicted Winner: The coolest choice would be to hand it the highly deserving Linklater, Hawke and Delpy for Before Midnight. Who will win? Quite possibly Ridley, again as a symbolic fuck-you to old Academy farts who won’t watch Slave on DVD.

Best Supporting Female: Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station; Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave; Yolonda Ross, Go For Sisters; June Squibb, Nebraska. Predicted Winner: Probably Nyong’o but possibly Squibb.

Best Supporting Male: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Will Forte, Nebraska; James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club; Keith Stanfield, Short Term 12. Predicted Winner: Probably Leto but very possibly Gandolfini — that would be the way-cooler thing given that Leto is a 90% lock for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. Don’t copycat the Oscars if you can help it!

Best First Screenplay: Lake Bell, In A World; Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Don Jon; Bob Nelson, Nebraska; Jill Soloway, Afternoon Delight; Mike Starrbury, The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete. Predicted Winner: No clue. Nelson?

Best Cinematogrqphy: Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years A Slave; Benoit Debie, Spring Breakers; Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis; Frank G. Demarco, All Is Lost; Matthias Grunsky, Computer Chess. Predicted Winner: The bundled-up wintry vibe conveyed by Delbonnel’s desaturated color photography deserves the prize. I haven’t a clue who will actually win.

Best Editing: Shane Carruth & David Lowery, Upstream Color; Jem Cohen & Marc Vives, Museum Hours; Frank G. Demarco, All Is Lost; Matthias Grunsky, Computer Chess; Nat Sanders, Short Term 12. Predicted Winner: No clue. Sanders as a sop to Short Term 12?

Best Documentary: 20 Feet From Stardom, Director/Producer: Morgan Neville, Producers: Gil Friesen & Caitrin Rogers; After Tiller, Directors/Producers: Martha Shane & Lana Wilson; Gideon’s Army, Director/Producer: Dawn Porter, Producer: Julie Goldman; The Act of Killing, Director/Producer: Joshua Oppenheimer, Producers: Joram Ten Brink, Christine Cynn, Anne Köhncke, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Michael Uwemedimo; The Square, Director: Jehane Noujaim, Producer: Karim Amer. Predicted Winner: 20 Feet From Stardom is the obvious emotional choice (and the likely winner tomorrow night) but The Square or The Act of Killing will probably prevail…maybe.

Best International Film: A Touch of Sin (China); Blue is the Warmest Color (France); Gloria (Chile); The Great Beauty (Italy); The Hunt (Denmark). Predicted Winner: Blue Is The Warmest Color….c’mon!

I don’t have clue #1 about the rest of the categories (Best First Feature, John Cassevetes Award, etc.) so why even go there?