Superbad (Sony) will do much, much better than expected this weekend. Depending on who you listen to, the classic Greg Mottola-Judd Apatow-Seth Rogen-Evan Goldberg-Michael Cera- Jonah Hill-Christopher Mintz-Plasse-Bill Hader comedy will either pull in a projected $33,607,000 (about $11,400,000 was earned on Friday) or an estimated $30,300,000.
Sony’s own modest projection had been in the $25 million range, which is what I was hearing also. Fantasy Moguls’ Steve Mason was a little closer to the mark by predicting $27 million and change.
The other big news is that the fifth-place The Invasion, which opened this weekend, won’t even take in the projected best-case-scenario $10 million. One studio estimate has it topping out at $5,350,000 or about $1500 per theatre for the weekend. Steve Mason has it earning $5.7 million for the weekend. They might have done a little better — who knows? — if they’d just left the Oliver HIirschbiegel version alone and released. This movie had “wipe-out” painted on its forehead for a long time, but a failure of this dimension won’t do much for Nicole Kidman‘s quote. “She doesn’t sell tickets,” my marketing guy says.
Rush Hour 3 (New Line) will drop a bit more than 60% for the weekend, with estimates ranging between $16. 2million abd $18 million, give or take.
The Bourne Ultimatum will take in $17,763,000 for an approximate cume of $162,000,000. It could end up in the $200 million range, which would make it the biggest Bourne ever. The Bourne Supremacy topped out at $176,049,130 domestically. The Bourne Identity finished with $121,468,960.
I can let the rest go for now. (Robert Mitchum in Out of the Past: “I can let it all go.”) Read Mason’s account if you want to know how every last little film did.