Mid-July means it’s time to spitball the Telluride Film Festival, which this year will happen later than usual — Friday, 9.4 to Monday, 9.7. A lot of heavy-hitter titles in play so expect a stronger-than-usual slate. We’re talking four categories here — all but locked (i.e., if they don’t turn up I’ll fall over in my desk chair), likely spitballs (playing Telluride would be logical, strategic & smart), bizarros and wishy-wishies.

I know next to nothing in terms of absolute certainty but c’mon…

All But Locked (6): Todd Haynes‘ Carol (Weinstein Co., 12.18), Paolo Sorrentino‘s Youth (Fox Searchlight, 12.4), James Vanderbilt‘s Truth (Sony Pictures Classics, sometime in October?); Laszlo Nemes‘ Son of Saul (Sony Pictures Classics, domestic release uncertain); Sarah Gavron‘s Suffragette (Focus Features, 10.23); John Crowley‘s Brooklyn (Fox Searchlight, 11.6).

Toronto Favoring, Telluride Avoiding?: Thomas McCarthy‘s Spotlight (Open Road, 11.6).

Logical Spitballs (5): Jay Roach‘s Trumbo (Bleecker Street, 11.6); Scott Cooper‘s Black Mass (Warner Bros., 9.18 — only 11 days after Telluride ends); Brian Helgeland‘s Legend (Universal, 10.2 — too gangsterish for Telluride?); Luca Guadagnino‘s A Bigger Splash (Fox Searchlight, release date unknown); Barry Levinson‘s Rock the Kasbah (Open Road, 10.23 — too much fooling around?).

Bizarro (1): Baltasar Kormákur‘s Everest (Universal, 9.18 — opening the Venice Film Festival a few days earlier — again, commercial release is only 11 days after Telluride ends).

Wishy-Wishies (5): Danny Boyle and Aaron Sorkin‘s Steve Jobs (Universal, 10.9); Oliver Stone‘s Snowden (Open Road, 12.25); Richard Linklater‘s Everybody Wants Some (Paramount, release date unknown); Our Brand Is Crisis (Warner Bros., release date unknown); Stephen Frears‘ The Program.

When Will I Be Loved?: Jeff Nichols‘ Midnight Special (Warner Bros., 11.25).