The N.Y. Post‘s “Page Six” column has quoted that downbeat- tracking item I wrote last Saturday about The Breakup, along with a Universal spokesperson saying that “Wells doesn’t understand tracking” [and that] “for a romantic comedy, the numbers are very encouraging.” I quoted NRG figures that put “definite interest” levels at 30, and “first choice” at 5, and concluded, perhaps a bit rashly, that the game is “pretty much over.” The numbers were accurate and I conveyed an interpretation that seemed right to me, but I’m allowing for an error of emphasis on my part because I’ve since been told by others that this conclusion was simplistic and lacked perspective. The numbers I ran only tell part of the story, as they were only a reading of the pulse of the potential audience two and a half weeks away from the opening. The first choice and definite interest figures were misleading, I’ve been told, because biggies like The DaVinci Code and X-Men 3 were ruling at the time the survey was taken, and that scores for The Break-Up and The Omen will markedly improve with tomorrow’s (i.e., Thursday, 5.25) numbers. I’ve since been told, in fact, the The Breakup may pull in a more-than-substantial opening weekend sum. I’m not saying what I said earlier will prove to be incorrect — the Vince Vaughn-Jennifer Aniston comedy was not looking like a strong contender when I ran that item. Aniston’s name-marquee value doesn’t appear to mean much to audiences so far, and NRG respondents have reported a fairly pronounced disinterest in seeing Vaughn inhabit a romantic-boyfriend part. And there’s also that re-shot ending, which advance-screening witnesses have said is a cop-out. But sometimes the wind shifts and sometimes audiences are slow on the pickup, so let’s see what happens.