Since mid December I’ve been 90% convinced that Kathryn Bigelow would take the Best Director Oscar with the Best Picture prize going to Avatar for mostly political reasons (3D game-changer, all-time champion earner, injector of economic vitality into the industry, tens of millions of dazzled international fans). Whenever there’s a toss-up contest, the majority of Academy voters always favor the political.

But hearing last night that The Hurt Locker had won the Best Edited Feature (Dramatic) Eddie Award over Avatar made me go “wait a minute…I’m sensing an alignment of the planets here.” It was actually that plus a web-journalist colleague confiding two or three days ago that she’s convinced that Hurt is the most likely winner.

All along I’ve presumed that a little movie that’s only made $12-plus million can’t win. Now I’m thinking “wow, this year may be different” and “money may not be everything.” It’s still called the Academy of Arts & Sciences & Money, of course, but I’ll howl like a coyote and melt all over the carpet if The Hurt Locker wins.

And then I’ll go back to Extra Virgin and ask those women who told me last November they’d never heard of The Hurt Locker much less seen it and say, “So, guys…?”