Eight days ago Award Watch‘s Erik Anderson posted a spitball list of 20 Best Picture nominees, listed in order of hunches or likelihood. Boldfaced HE indicates strong agreement on my part; non-boldfaced WHUT indicates uncertainty, skepticism, halfhearted agreement and/or no comment; no reaction at all means no fucking reaction at all.

I will post my own roster of preferential likelies sometime tomorrow morning. Right now I’m figuring the four hottest contenders are Killers of the Flower Moon, Bardo, Babylon and Avatar: The Way of Water. Please respond in some way, shape or form to the current whatever-this-is.

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) / HE
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) / HE
3. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) / HE
4. Bardo, A False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) / HE
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) / WHUT
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) / HE
7. Women Talking (MGM/UAR) / WHUT
8. The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) / HE
9. The Whale (A24) / WHUT
10. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) / WHUT

11. TÁR (Focus Features) / HE
12. Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios/MGM/UAR)
13. Broker (NEON)
14. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
15. Elvis (Warner Bros)
16. She Said (Universal Pictures) / HE
17. White Noise (Netflix) / HE
18. Napoleon (Apple Original Films) / HE
19. Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
20. Shirley (Netflix)