It’s not just which films are likely to play the Venice Film Festival (8.29 to 9.8), but which films aren’t. There’s always a reason when a presumed award-season hottie doesn’t get invited or decides against attending. It isn’t necessarily a downish harbinger when this happens, but it does tend to indicate that vague uncertainties may be stirring the pot.

In addition to Damien Chazelle‘s First Man taking the opening-night Venezia slot, the other likelies, to hear it from Variety‘s Nick Vivarelli and Deadline‘s Pete Hammond and Nancy Tartaglione, are as follows:

Alfonso Cuaron‘s Roma will play Venice, but then most of as knew that. Paul Greengrass’s Norway, about the ghastly 2011 terrorist attack by a Norwegian rightwing loon who killed 77 people, most of them teenagers, is said to be more or less locked.

Bradley Cooper‘s A Star Is Born — beloved by name-brand actors and exhibitors, but perhaps not as much by others — is said to be more or less firmed. (Nobody knows anything.) Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite, which I’ve heard is good but “maybe not so period.”

Joel Edgerton’s Boy Erased, Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk and Francois Ozon’s Alexandre “will not be making the trip to Venice,” sources have told Vivarelli. Ditto Benh Zeitlin‘s Wendy — probably won’t open this year, much less playing Venice.

Luca Guadagnino’s Suspiria remake is an allegedly good bet; ditto Felix Van Groeningen‘s Beautiful Boy, which stars Timothee Chalamet.

Saverio Costanzo‘s My Brilliant Friend, an Italian-language feature that will end up on HBO. Ditto Mario Martone’s Capri, Revolution.

Possibly Mike Leigh’s Peterloo; Joanna Hogg’s The Souvenir and Yann Demange’s White Boy Rick.

I thought perhaps Steve McQueen‘s Widows, an alleged mix of social relevance with a heist film, might debut in Venice, but maybe not.

Laszlo Nemes’ Sunset is an alleged Lido lock.

No mention of Terrence Malick‘s Radegund, which was recently speculated as a possible Venice debut.