Two days ago, the Hollywood Reporter‘s Carl DiOrio reported that Semi-Pro “looks like it could be a full-on hit,” predicting that it “will open at least half as well” as Talladega Nights did on its opening weekend, i.e., half of $47 million being about $23.5 million. DiOrio also said that “with solid interest among men and women, something closer to $30 million isn’t out of the question.”
As we all know, Semi-Pro did around $15.4 million. DiOrio’s numbers were whackier, yes, than my prediction that it would take in an “easy” $25 million, but they were nowhere near as loop-dee-loopy as Steve Mason‘s prediction of $40 milion plus. How may others were predicting $25 million-plus grosses? A lot, I’ll bet.
Mason’s reply to Saturday morning’s box-office story said that “audience surveys from the various industry tracking firms don’t always accurately represent what’s really happening in the marketplace. They suggest what may happen, but there is no guarantee of a certain performance. This isn’t unlike what happened in this year’s New Hampshire primary where Barack Obama was shown to have an insurmountable lead in pre-election polls and even exit surveys prior to Hillary Clinton‘s victory.”