In the latest Gurus of Gold chart, seven industry pulse-takers — Vox‘s Greg Ellwood, Today‘s Dave Karger, L.A. Times critic Mark Olsen, MCN’s David Poland, Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone, Susan Wloszczyna (ala Suzie Woz) and L.A. Times staffer Glenn Whipp — are predicting a Best Actor Oscar win by FencesDenzel Washington with only four — Toronto Star critic Peter Howell, TheWrap‘s Steve Pond, The Film Experience‘s Nathaniel R and Indiewire‘s Anne Thompson — sticking by longtime frontrunner Casey Affleck, who gives the performance of his career in Manchester By The Sea.

The Denzel surge is about the SAG win, of course, but two things have happened since to alter the chemistry — i.e., Affleck winning the BAFTA Best Actor trophy and Deadline‘s Mike Fleming running an in-depth, highly flattering making-of-Manchester piece.

Yes, there’s a perception of a horse race here and I’m not saying it’s settled, but I am saying that the Denzel surge happened two weeks ago and has since receded.