Last night Indiewire‘s David Ehrlich tweeted what he described as “premature but final” Best Picture predictions. Here they are with HE assessments. Remember that as brilliant and knowledgable as Ehrlich is, he’s not a hot-dog-eating “man of the people” type like myself. He camps out in his own realm. That said…

1. Black Panther / HE says: Ryan Coogler‘s Marvel blockbuster will be Best Picture nominated, but it doesn’t really kick in until the last hour.

2. The Favourite / HE says: Good Barry Lyndon-esque, English royalty lesbo film for the first two thirds or thereabouts, but not so much during the last third. Possible nominee, no chance of winning.

3. First Man / HE says: On one hand a real “you are there, you are Neil” NASA movie by a first-rate auteur, and on the other hand an emotionally subdued thing that may not quite connect with Joe and Jane Popcorn. Will be Best Picture nominated.

4. Green Book / HE says: Exquisitely crated, perfectly acted feel-good period film that comes together just so and in just the right way. Could’ve been made 30 or even 40 years ago, but easily the most likable award-season flick out there. A Best Picture nominee, for sure. Might actually win.

4. On The Basis of Sex / HE says: The story of beloved Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg is an automatic Best Picture nominee as a political-cultural counterweight to the Brett Kavanaugh episode.

5. Roma / HE says: Alfonso Cuaron‘s black-and-white period masterpiece will surely be nominated.

6. A Star Is Born / HE says: An almost certain Best Picture nominee, but there’s a good deal of pushback out there. I don’t see a win.

7. Vice / HE says: No clue, but Bale is a lock for Best Actor.

8. Widows / HE says: Best heist film I’ve seen in years and a tough Chicago story to boot. Will the Academy nominate a genre film that mixes larceny and local politics?