In his latest “Notes on a Season” column, The Envelope‘s Pete Hammond claims that “at this point the Best Picture frontrunners among members I have talked to are Wall-E , The Dark Knight and Changeling, in that order.”

Changeling? Nobody on my wavelength has considered, much less flirted with, this notion. I guess Hammond’s party-chat friends haven’t been told that Clint Eastwood‘s ’08 Oscar shot is Gran Torino or nothing. Forget Changeling.

“They haven’t seen much else,” says Hammond — what, no Milk screenings? — but Slumdog Millionaire “is slowly starting to be mentioned as well.”

Hammond acknowledges that “unanimous [forecast] among the bloggers, though, is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will win in a rout, even though none of us have seen the Dec. 25 release…yet.”

Hammond is implying there’s a certain b.s. factor at work here. Oscar handicappers presuming or imagining what it is or might be, blah blah. The reason there’s a strong belief in this corner that Button will take the Best Picture Oscar is (a) I’ve read Eric Roth‘s script and believe it to be a sad and moving piece, and (b) the fact that two guys — a respected post-production veteran and a bright fellow who knows a lot of people and hears things — are telling me that middle-aged guys who’ve seen it have gotten all choked up.

The Best Picture contender that makes people cry wins — it’s that simple.

“Almost no one in the academy or the press has seen Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Seven Pounds or Fox’s Australia, which the studio is purposely taking its own sweet time to campaign. Rightly they figure people should see the Baz Luhrmann epic (which likely will be delivered wet to theaters on Nov. 26) before the studio starts touting it for awards. In fact, most people at Fox would probably love to see the heavily under wraps film themselves before shouting its best picture potential to the rest of the world.”

“Meanwhile foreign-language film entries continue to screen at a swift pace, but from what we’ve been told only Germany, Japan and Russia have made any significant impact, with Italy’s Cannes Grand Prix winner, Gomorra, getting predictions that it will be one of the final five, despite mixed response from some who frowned on its generous amount of violence.

“And the Portuguese film Our Beloved Month of August was apparently so poorly received that some members were trying to leave before they could ‘officially’ exit and still receive credit for seeing it.”

The gist of Patrick Goldstein‘s 11.6 Big Picture blog posting is that two journalists on the Hollywood beat — Entertainment Weekly‘s Dave Karger and Variety‘s Anne Thompson — are part of “a gang of daffy, clown-suit-clad Oscar bloggers making endlessly moronic Best Picture predictions.”

The Envelope‘s Tom O’Neil took offense at this, doubled-down on the anger and posted an argumentative response. He mainly said that when you boil it all down Goldstein is (a) simply resentful of Oscar bloggers for encroaching on his turf, and that (b) he’s made as many moronic or inaccurate predictions as anyone else so whaddaya whaddaya.

I didn’t take the wacky-clown-suit line personally because I know who and what I am — an opinionated, hard-working, Red Bull-sipping eccentric willing to sound a little quirky, deranged or off-balance in order make my points in ways that will penetrate the membrane. What I mean is that I do angry, fickle and obsessive but daffy isn’t my thing. Plus I have a highly developed style sense (especially now that I’m living in NYC-NJ) so clown suits are out. I wear Italian-made loafers already.

What Goldstein is really saying, of course, is that talking up this or that presumed Oscar fave due to some recent or upcoming political mood swing is dopey.

I agree with PG that Karger’s claim that “this week’s election-day results may have a profound effect” on the best picture chances of The Dark Knight is close to absurd. Partly because I don’t feel, as Karger does, that TDK “speaks to the innate goodness of human behavior.” Karger is referring to the finale, and his belief that the sentiment behind it mirrors the feeling which led to the election of Barack Obama. Because Oscar ballots are due on 1.12.09, or eight days before Obama’s inauguration, Karger feels that “most Hollywood types” will be swayed to give awards to the picture.

I’m sorry but this is horseshit. To my knowedge no legit BHO echoes have been acknowledged outside of TDK geek chat boards.TDK is going to get a Best Supporting Actor nom for Heath Ledger plus the usual tech noms. And that’s it.

There is merit, however, in the belief by Variety‘s Anne Thompson that the passage of Proposition 8’s gay marriage ban “could actually boost” Milk‘s Oscar chances, saying that “the fact that California did not defeat the ban could energize the largely liberal academy base” and make voters realize “that we have not come far enough.”

This doesn’t sound crazy to me. Thompson didn’t say that industry anger about Prop Hate’s passage would guarantee an Oscar or two or three for Milk — she merely said that the climate could “boost” its chances. That’s an entirely conceivable scenario.

Something snapped the other day when I happened to watch that Changeling trailer on the tube for what felt like the 26th or 27th time. To my surprise, I laughed. I’ve heard Angelina Jolie tearfully wail “I want my son back!” so often that the film’s generally affecting emotional poignancy has been made to seem garish and even tacky. Which Clint Eastwood is constitutionally incapable of being. That ad has blanketed everything.

I guess I’ve been so in love with Crowe-as-Moe that I didn’t “hear” the reports about Benicio del Toro having the inside track to play the role in the Farrelly brothers film. (I heard them physiologically but psychologically I flinched.) In any case, maybe Nashville-residing HE reader Brad Jones, who’s sent along an improved Photoshop image of the New Stooges, would consider doing a new one with Moe del Toro.

“I love the inspired casting choices you have mentioned for the new Stooges movie,” Jones wrote, “but yesteday’s photoshop image was for shit (as you noted). I couldn’t help but work one up this evening to get a little more accurate portrayal.

“But as I was inserting the different actors (brilliant choice with Crowe and Philip Seymour Hoffman), I kept seeing a different face for Larry. There’s no doubt that RDJ could pull it off, especially after his sardonic turn in Tropic Thunder, but I kept coming back to Paul Giamatti.

“Now before you dismiss take a look at the pic, remember the work he did in American Splendor, and forget that he’s been cast in every other movie over the last two years. He just fits, doesn’t he?

“No matter the Larry choice, the Farrely’s had better not puss out and go with the likes of Seann William Scott, Jason Biggs or anyone of that ilk.”