Another Snapshot

I really do need to know which ten 2010 films are going to be nominated for Best Picture. It’s not too early to figure this out. All the Oscar-campaign publicists have been hired, they all know what’s going on, and we at least need to take a reading. Obviously things will evolve and develop over the next four or five months, but anyone who says it’s too early to get a fix on things now just isn’t being candid.

Definitely Inception and Toy Story 3 — both pretty much locked as we speak. I’m told that The Kids Are All Right has burrowed right in among the liberal Academy set. Almost certainly The Social Network, even though director David Fincher, I’m hearing, doesn’t want to formally “campaign.” And possibly The Conspirator, which is going into Toronto guns blazing and is looking at a serious fall-winter campaign. (It seems odd to hear that Robin Wright Penn is going for Best Supporting Actress, considering that she has the female lead role.) So that’s two solids, one likely and two semi-probables.

In a fair and just world Biutiful (which Sony Classics will distribute, I’m told) ought to be among the ten. So should Fair Game, which I creamed over in Cannes. (I’m aware that other critics aren’t as enthusiastic, but this is a smart and solid piece of work with top-grade performances.) If they both land a nomination that’ll make seven.

The remaining three will come from a pack composed of True Grit, Hereafter, Conviction, Everything You’ve Got, London Boulevard, Love and Other Drugs, Your Highness. Maybe this list should also include Aaron Schneider‘s Get Low, Mark Romanek‘s Never Let Me Go and/or Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech (which has a shot at a Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor nomination for Colin Firth).

The fact that The Tree of Life by the Endlessly Dilly-Dallying Terrence Malick isn’t doing Telluride/Toronto/Venice doesn’t mean it’s folding its tent altogether, but the fact that folks close to the action are saying “who knows?” and “all bets are off” doesn’t exactly imply strength and confidence.

Greenberg and The Ghost Writer are still among the year’s best so far. I don’t care what anyone else says about this. Anyone who disagrees, I mean.

Mike Leigh‘s Another Year will open and be well reviewed and go away.

Just Sayin’

All I want from Sylvester Stallone‘s The Expendables is some integrated Dirty Dozen action. I want a solid ensemble piece, and not three or four of them (Stallone, Jason Staham, a couple of others) getting most of the screen time while the rest parachute in for quickie cameos. I will not be happy if either Bruce Willis, Mickey Rourke or Arnold Schwarzenegger do walk-ons a la Frank Sinatra in The Cannonball Run II.

Hand-Off

Movieline‘s Stu Van Airsdale is reporting that All Good Things, “that Andrew Jarecki/Ryan Gosling/Kirsten Dunst shelf-dweller,” has moved from the Weinstein Co. to Magnolia.

Plus “according to info buried on the website for [Laemmle’s Encino plex], the film could make its first appearance as early as next week,” he reports. What — no similar showing in NYC?

Stu recounts the basics: (a) the film “is based on the tabloid-ready life of New York real-estate scion Robert Durst“; (b) “Furst’s wife disappeared in 1982”; and (c) Durst “was later acquitted of murdering his neighbor in Texas — he claimed self-defense, despite having dismembered the body and dumped the parts in Galveston Bay.” On top of which Durst was probably schizophrenic.

Now, why wouldn’t anyone want to see a movie about this? Especially with Ryan Gosling, one of the most gifted but self-absorbed actors in the business, playing him, albeit as a stand-in called David Marks? Kirsten Dunst plays his doomed wife, and Frank Langella plays Durst’s overbearing/controlling father.

Noyce Tapes

Here are three ten-minute mp4s from last Sunday’s chat with Salt director Phillip Noyce. I delayed posting because I’d asked Jett to prune them into a single piece with three or four Salt clips integrated into the whole. But after a day or so Jett decided that Noyce’s comments, no offense, were “too short or too long” and that he didn’t have time to make it right. So I’m just running them raw.

Here’s chapter 2 and chapter 3.

A certain chatty informality always creeps in whenever you’re interviewing someone you personally know. I may have also erred in sitting too far away; camera sound is always cleaner and fuller if the subject is within two or three feet.

Predator

I don’t know many specifics about Darren Aronofsky‘s Black Swan, which will reportedly debut at the Venice Film Festival six weeks hence, but the term “supernatural thriller” obviously sounds cooler and classier than “horror film,” which is how a certain fellow described it to me several weeks ago.

“Supernatural thriller” means films like The Orphanage and Don’t Look Now; “horror film” means allegedly scary Eloi gruel.

A Variety report says that Aronofsky’s Swan “is likely to be the Venice opener, providing plenty of star power, with Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, Winona Ryder and Vincent Cassel potentially in tow.” It also says that test screenings for this Fox Searchlight release have reportedly been generating plenty of buzz. (If anyone has attended one of these screenings I’d love to hear a reaction or two.)

The Variety story doesn’t mention The Tree of Life or The Dithering Fraidy Cat Known As Terrence Malick.

Other likely Venice attractions include Ben Affleck‘s The Town (Warner Bros., 9.17), Anton Corbijn‘s The American, Sofia Coppola‘s Somewhere, Tom Hooper‘s The King’s Speech, Julian Schnabel‘s Miral, Monte Hellman‘s Road to Nowhere, Richard J. Lewis‘s Barney’s Version, Al Pacino‘s Wilde Salome, Tom Tykwer‘s Three, Anthony Cordier‘s Happy Few, Takashi Miike‘s Thirteen Assassins and Danny and Oxide Pang‘s The Child’s Eye, “the first Hong Kong 3D horror pic.”

Monsieur Blam-Blam

For me, the two Mesrine movies feel like the most intriguing adrenaline rides of the late summer. A total of 245 minutes (112 + 133) = a French Scarface by way of Carlos minus the politics with more sex and shouting. The usual self-destructive violent arc, life as a roman candle, this way madness lies, ’70s sideburns, etc. The name is pronounced “Mayreen.”

The problem for Music Box Films, of course, is that however you want to pronounce it, “Mesrine” means nothing to Joe Popcorn.

The wiser way to go for the U.S. market would have been to forego the name altogether and called the films Frog Blaster 1 and Frog Blaster 2. It’s genius if I do say so myself — the kind of name that Hip-Hop Homeys (i.e., the natural fans of this sort of film, having embraced Al Pacino‘s Tony Montana as their patron saint) would relate to. On top of which Frog Blaster sounds like a video game.

The first installment — Mesrine: Killer Instinct — opens on 8.13 on a gradual roll-out basis, and the second — Mesrine: Public Enemy No. 1 — opens on 9.10.

No one can do blood-vessel-popping madness like Vincent Cassel.

You know how two-part crime movies go. They’re all The Rise and Fall of Legs Diamond. The first part is about the upswing — fighting through and creating the legend; the second is about the action intensifying, various gathering complications and the inevitable death or downfall.

The director is Jean-Francois Richet; the screenwriter is Abdel Raouf Dafri. The Mesrine films are two years old (of course, naturally), having played in France in ’08 and in England the following year.

Jacques Mesrine (1936-1979) was a French John Dillinger who had a couple of straight jobs for brief periods, wore outrageous mutton-chop sideburns in the ’70s, and was finally cut down in a hailstorm of bullets in a cop ambush.

I love the following portion from Mesrine’s Wikipedia bio: “Mesrine escaped again on the 21st August 1972 with five others from Canada’s famous Saint-Vincent-de-Paul prison. With accomplice Jean-Paul Mercier, a wanted French-Canadian murderer, Mesrine robbed a series of banks in Montreal, sometimes two in the same day.

“On 3 September, they failed in an attempt to help three others escape from the same prison (Saint-Vincent-de-Paul) but remained at large. A week later they murdered two forest rangers. They continued robbing banks in Montreal, and even sneaked into the USA again for a brief stay at the Waldorf Astoria in New York. By the end of the year they moved to Caracas, Venezuela with two mistresses in tow.”

Two mistresses in Caracas? Stopovers at the Waldorf Astoria? Mesrine’s life was a Warren Zevon song.

Two Lousy Weeks?

A Hollywood Reporter story quotes Los Angeles sheriff’s officials saying that Lindsay Lohan “will likely spend about two weeks of her three-month sentence in jail.” What happened to estimates that she’d serve about 25% of her 90-day sentence, or about three and a half to four weeks? The system is already cutting her slack?

That said, the lighting is strangely flattering in this mug shot. The skin tones are smooth and beguiling. The eye makeup looks professional. And I love the faintly flirtatious, come-hither expression.