The least exciting Oscar awards of the 21st Century will begin at 5:30 pm Pacific, or four hours hence. The only cliffhanger among the major contenders is whether or not the over-and-settled allegations against Manchester by The Sea‘s Casey Affleck will give FencesDenzel Washington a shot at winning his third Oscar. That’s it — the only situation that handicappers aren’t sure about. Along with whether or not Bill Paxton will be included in the death reel.

I’m betting on an Affleck win, which reminds me that I need to ban Bobby Peru from the comment threads.

HE will live-blog through the show, and then it’s off to the La La Land after-party at Soho House.

BEST PICTURE: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (W); Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge; Ryan Gosling, La La Land; Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic, Denzel Washington, Fences.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Isabelle Huppert, Elle; Ruth Negga, Loving; Natalie Portman, Jackie; Emma Stone, La La Land (W), Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (W); Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water; Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea; Dev Patel, Lion; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Viola Davis, Fences (W); Naomie Harris, Moonlight; Nicole Kidman, Lion; Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures; Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea.

BEST DIRECTING: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land (WDamian Chazelle), Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Kubo and the Two Strings (W); Moana; My Life as a Zucchini; The Red Turtle; Zootopia.

BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE): Fire at Sea; I Am Not Your Negro; Life, Animated: O.J.: Made in America (W); 13th.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Moonlight (W).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea (WKenneth Lonergan), 20th Century Women.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Arrival, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight, Silence. (If it were my call I’d give the Oscar to Silence dp Rodrigo Prieto.)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Allied, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, La La Land. (No strong opinion on possible winner.)

Honestly? I don’t care that much about the other awards. We’re all presuming that La La Land will end up with…what, at least seven or eight Oscars? You tell me.