Nate Silver, the numbers-and-poll-crunching whiz kid whose accurate primary and general election predictions were posted last year on fivethirtyeight.com and won him immense respect, has delivered an analysis of the Oscar contenders and delivered one big surprise — i.e., that Benjamin Button‘s Taraji P. Henson will win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar. No way. Bank on Penelope Cruz.

Silver claims there’s a 71.1% likelihood that Mickey Rourke will win the Best Actor Oscar. The late Heath Ledger has an 85.8% chance of winning the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. (Do ya think so?) Kate Winslet, he says, is a 67.6% favorite over Meryl Streep, who only tallies a 32.4% likelihood. (A voice tells me she might win anyway.)

Best Director contender Danny Boyle, the auteur of Slumdog Millionaire, has a 99.7% chance of winning, and Slumdog Millionaire itself is 99% favored to win Best Picture.