“There is always a new generation of kids who don’t know and who are interested in movies but who have no idea who Lubitsch or Hawks or Satyajit Ray are. And each new generation is a little more distant from the beginnings of cinema, from the heyday of the Hollywood studios, from Italian neorealism and the French new wave, and now from the ’90s, when the consciousness of film preservation had really taken hold.” — Martin Scorsese speaking to Variety‘s Christy Grosz in a 1.1.12 posting.

At this stage of the game a very small slice of humanity is aware of Lubitsch, Hawks and Ray, and a small fraction of even that crowd is engaged enough to buy Blurays or DVDs of their films or catch their films at places like MOMA or LACMA. Compared to the many millions who pay to see commercial movies and buy video games, I’d be surprised if more than a very tiny fraction has even heard of those guys. We’re talking about a relatively small fraternity of people in the filmmaking, marketing and publicity realms on top of film journalists and archivists and film festival organizers — a group that might amount to 8,000 or 10,000 people, and quite possibly less — on top of your mostly urban film geeks who number…what,15,000 or 20,000 or 25,000?

Maybe these percentages were more or less the same back in the ’60s and ’70s. Or maybe film literacy is greater now that at any time in the past due to the easy availability of just about any half-decent film ever made. I only know that I knew a little something about who Hawks, Lubitsch and Ray were when I was 21, and I would be very surprised if my two sons, who are probably more film literate than most due to the fact that I’ve been force-feeding them great movies all their lives, have any knowledge of them at all.

What kind of dimwit would be thoughtless enough to marry this stooge in the first place? How many 20something guys out there think like Humphries? He really is that guy who slams an ice cream cone into his forehead.

“I strongly prefer films that observe stories as opposed to telling stories. The cinematography, the score…they need to conspire to create a perspective through which you experience the unfolding of a story, as opposed to a more oppressive, pedantic way of doing things.” — Moneyball director Bennett Miller to Hollywoodnews.com’s Sean O’Connell in a 1.2.12 post.

For the first thinking-cap exercise of 2012, perhaps HE readers could share views about which highly-touted Best Picture finalists have used “oppressive” and “pedantic” story-telling strategies? Does anything come to mind? All right, I’ll say it. I was thinking of War Horse and The Artist, but I’ve been saying that all along. Others?

O’Connell’s piece starts with a statement that Moneyball “was the best movie I saw in 2011.

“Granted, it didn’t register as my favorite movie immediately after a pre-Toronto screening,” he writes. “But I found myself thinking about Miller’s adaptation for weeks. I went out of my way to see it again. Then one more time. By year’s end, no other film stuck to the ribs in quite the same way.”

O’Connell then asks Miller if Moneyball‘s financial and critical success will make it easier to get his next film green-lighted. “Absolutely,” he answers. “That’s where these outcomes are most meaningful. And I’m not condemning them. I just think it’s important to temper yourself when it comes to those things.

“If you are operating from a place of speculation about how the market and the critical masses are going to respond, I think you’re playing a different game. You surrender something. You lose something. You become obedient to something other than…it will sound too harsh to say it, but I think it’s better to generate your vision from within and follow that than it is to approach it from a market-research perspective. Signals from the outside world are not a terrible way to gauge reaction, to get a sense that you’re still dealing with some form of reality. But I think 95% of it should be inconsiderate of any kind of projections of box office or critical response.”

The best relationships with the best women, I feel, start with the man being…okay, perhaps not 95% indifferent about whether he’ll get laid if he says this or does that, but mostly unconcerned about “results” and more focused on the romantic current as it unfolds, step by step, petal by petal. The fluttery feeling is the fluttery feeling. To paraphrase Miller, “If you are operating from a place of speculation about whether certain lures or strategies will lead the lady in question to shed her clothing, I think you’re playing a different game.”

In a piece called “Narratives and Precedents,” Hollywood Reporter columnist Scott Feinberg explains how various thematic narratives have sold a nominated performance to Academy voters. It’s a sharply observed piece, but he errs in describing George C. Scott‘s swaggering titular character in Patton as “a man who gains great power but loses his sense of perspective.”

Scott’s war-loving general goes through a bad career stretch after he slaps that soldier in Italy, but his perspective is firm and rooted from start to finish. He gets disciplined by Gen. Eisenhower in Act Two and he has to cool his act for political purposes, but his understanding of his identity and destiny never changes.

If you’re going to post a shot of a 2011 Oscar ballot (as Gold Derby did earlier today), you need to have an image in focus. And if you’re going to re-post this shot, you need to sharpen and clarify it, which Awards Daily failed to do (left). Notice the improvement in HE’s version (right). It’s not rocket science.

The Oscar-ballot instructions read as follows:

“When you have reviewed the Reminder List, please write the title of your first choice on the first line of this ballot and list your alternate choices on the succeeding lines in order of your preference. Do not list the same title more than once; multiple votes for the same picture do not enhance its chances.

“The pictures receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominees for final voting for the Best Picture award. There may not be more than ten nor fewer than five nominations; however, no picture shall be nominated that receives less than five percent of the total votes cast.

“The preferential system of tabulation is used in nominations voting. You are voting essentially for one achievement, and the preferential system insures that your vote will be cast — in order of your listed preferences — for the candidate for whom it can do the most good. (If, for example, the achievement on the top line of your ballot receives almost no support from other votes, you have not ‘wasted’ your vote. The system moves on and casts your vote for your second listed achievement, and so on.)

“You need not fill in all five lines. The more preferences you indicate, however, the greater the certainty that your ballot will influence the Best Picture nominees list.

“When you have marked this ballot, please return it to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in the enclosed, self-addressed GREEN envelope early enough to be received by them before the deadline, 5:00 pm [on] Friday, January 13, 2012.”

Last night’s angry tweets from Ellen Barkin and Sam Levinson about the New York police arresting several OWS people in midtown Manhattan were written for the right reasons and entirely understandable. I’ve been in the vicinity of coordinated police violence during political demonstrations, and it’s not a pretty thing to witness or feel. It’s upsetting and makes you want to retreat, but that’s how the cops want you to feel, of course.

“Get your motherfucking hands offa me!” are words to live and stand by when it comes to any law-abiding person’s clash with New York’s finest in this context. It appears to me as if Mayor Bloomberg and the police are trying to suppress and intimidate OWS protestors by using indiscriminate force and arresting people willy nilly. Ms. Barkin has my respect. More celebrities should be standing up and barking back. (The above video was apparently shot by Levinson.)

Toronto Star critic Peter Howell has tweeted notification of a 5.23.12 European theatrical debut of Walter Salles‘ On The Road, obviously indicating a Cannes Film Festival debut.

“Haywire is lovingly lighted and filmed, its action as sparingly edited as old Hollywood musicals, so that the painstaking fight choreography can be appreciated,” writes N.Y. Times contributor Margy Rochlin in a Gina Carano interview piece. “As the double-crossed freelance agent Mallory Kane, Ms. Carano gives Haywire jolts of energy with her arsenal of explosive moves: pushing off walls, slinging sheet pans, twisting arms until they break.

Haywire star Gina Carano. (N.Y. Times photo by Misha Erwitt.)

Rochlin quotes Haywire director Steven Soderbergh as follows: “Why are action films so ugly? Why can’t there be action, and why can’t they be beautiful to look at?”

From my 11.7 review: “There’s something almost stunning about the straight-up realism in Haywire‘s fight scenes. Or nostalgic, I should say. For as I mentioned last night, and as Soderbergh himself noted during last night’s post-screening q & a, the fight-scene realism is a kind of tribute to the train-compartment battle between Sean Connery and Robert Shaw in From Russia With Love (’63).

“With their phony, fetishy, high-flying action-ballet bullshit, most Asian martial-arts films (efforts like Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon excepted) get it so completely wrong, for whatever reason not understanding or unable to deliver Haywire‘s simple aesthetic.

“Soderbergh’s shooting and editing of the Haywire fight scenes is exquisite. Haywire is faster and more furious than Drive, but Soderbergh is clearly coming from the same ‘tone it down, think it through and make it real‘ school of action cinema. At no time do Haywire’s action scenes give you that awful feeling of being artificially adrenalized and jacked-up for the sake of coherence-defying Michael Bay-o sensation.”

Action geeks who’ve talked down Haywire so far are pitiful. Their preference for the heightened anti-realism and cartoon CG-bullshit school of action movies needs to be deplored. They are the carriers of the corporate, ComicCon-tinged virus than has all but ruined the action genre.

The following are the official HE guesstimates of the Ten Likeliest 2012 Best Picture Nominees, favored in front and less favored in the rear. Along with some very loosely-spitballed reasons why:

Bill Murray as Franklin D. Roosevelt in Roger Michell’s Hyde Park on Hudson

Lincoln (mid to late December), d: Steven Spielberg, cast: Daniel Day Lewis, Sally Field, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Tommy Lee Jones. Why: The usual Spielberg-kowtow instinct (i.e., to show obeisance before power) plus the impact of Daniel Day Lewis‘s lead performance plus the instinct to show respect and allegiance for the legend of Abraham Lincoln. Classic historical chops. Will Spielberg try to hold back on his usual instincts? He may, I think, because of the Lewis influence.

The Master, d: Paul Thomas Anderson; cast: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams, Laura Dern. Why: This project has felt chilly from the get-go, but if it’s halfway focused and well-shaped it’ll offer a chance for Hollywood to deliver a big “eff you” to Scientology, which, we’ve all been told, The Master is absolutely not about. Plus it’s hard to imagine Hoffman’s L. Ron…sorry, charismatic leader performance not emerging as a Best Actor standout.

The Great Gatsby (12.25), d: Baz Luhrman, cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Tobey Maguire, Joel Edgerton, Carey Mulligan, Isla Fisher. Why: The usual instinct to honor an adaptation of a classic novel. As long as Luhrman doesn’t screw it up, that is, by going all crazy and wackjobby like he did on Australia.

The Silver Linings Playbook (11.21), d: David O. Russell, cast: Jennifer Lawrence, Bradley Cooper, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver, Chris Tucker, Julia Stiles. Why: No clue, but Russell always delivers so I’m guessing/presuming here.

Gravity (11.21), d: Alfonso Cuaron; cast: Sandra Bullock, George Clooney. Why: The technical audacity of this film, described by Clooney as sort of 2001-ish, will attract respect and huzzahs.

Cloud Atlas, d: Wachowski Bros., Tom Tykwer; cast: Tom Hanks, Hugo Weaving, Jim Sturgess, Hugh Grant, Halle Berry, Susan Sarandon, Ben Whishaw. Why: You have to figure that anything the Wachowskis have their hands on (especially with Tykwer co-directing) will not be seen as “an Academy film”, but Cloud‘s narrative scheme is so dense and ambitious hat it might push through as a Best Picture favorite.

Les Miserables (12.7), d: Tom Hooper, cast: Russell Crowe, Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway. Why: Classic musical in grand sweeping historical tradition plus direction by Hooper (The King’s Speech) plus Crowe, Jackman, etc. And Hathaway finally sings.

Untitled David Chase ’60s “Music-Driven” Film (11.19), d: David Chase, cast: James Gandolfini, Brad Garrett, Bella Heathcote, Christopher McDonald. Why: Because every Best Picture tally needs a smaller, more granular film that reflects or honors some cherished period of the past. In this instance it’s the ’60s — an easy boomer pocket-drop.

Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Osama bin Laden Film (12.14). Why: This may just be a good, solid action film without any Oscar play, but respect will initially be paid to the director of the Oscar-winning The Hurt Locker. To some pic may provide or represent a form of 9/11 closure.

Hyde Park on Hudson, d: Roger Michell, cast: Bill Murray, Laura Linney, Olivia Williams. Why: Michell is a classy, proficient director of midsize dramas and light comedies, and the plot — centered around the weekend in 1939 when the King and Queen of the United Kingdom visited upstate New York, and focusing in particular on love affair between FDR and his distant cousin Margaret Stuckley — suggests a King Speech-y vibe. But how will Murray fare with FDR?

Here’s a refreshed, add-on revision of a previously posted fall-holiday lineup piece that I ran on 12.25. The 2012 total is now 39 or 40, depending upon whether the Coen Bros.’ Inside Llewyn Davis opens this year or not. 2012 Sundance entries are sure to produce another four or five. Thanks to HE readers for input. HE conveys special interest.

Ben Affleck, Rachel McAdams in Terrence Malick’s The Burial, expected to be finished and released sometime between now and fall 2014.

Winter Kickoff: Haywire (HE), d: Steven Soderbergh, w: Lem Dobbs, cast: Gina Carano, Channing Tatum, Ewan Mcgregor, Michael Fassbender, Michael Douglas, Antonio Banderas. (1)

Spring-Summer Distinction/Refinement: The Dark Knight Rises (HE), d: Christopher Nolan, cast: Christian Bale, Tom Hardy, Anne Hathaway. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Marion Cotillard, Gary Oldman; Prometheus (HE), d: Ridley Scott, cast: Charlize Theron, Noomi Rapace, Michael Fassbender, Patrick Wilson, Idris Elba; Moonrise Kingdom(HE), d: Wes Anderson, cast: Bruce Willis, Edward Norton, Bill Murray, Tilda Swinton, Frances McDormand, Jason Schwartzman, Harvey Keitel; Take This Waltz, d: Sarah Polley, cast: Michelle Williams Seth Rogen, Luke Kirby. (4)

2011 Holdovers, Winter-Spring Escapees: Wettest County, d: John Hillcoat, cast: Tom Hardy, Shia LaBeouf; 360 (d: Fernando Meirelles), cast: Rachel Weisz, Anthony Hopkins, Ben Foster, Jude Law; Deep Blue Sea, d: Terence Davies, cast: Rachel Weisz, Tom Hiddleston, Simon Russell Beale; The Eye of the Storm, d: Fred Schepisi, cast: Charlotte Rampling, Geoffrey Rush, Judy Davis; Salmon Fishing in Yemen; d: Lasse Hallstrom, cast: Ewan McGregor, Emily Blunt, Kristin Scott Thomas; On The Road, d: Walter Salles, cast: Sam Riley, Garret Hedlund, Kristen Stewart, Kirsten Dunst, Tom Sturridge, Viggo Mortensen, Amy Adams. (6)

Free-Floating Quality-Level Genre Stabs: Cogan’s Trade (HE), d/w: Andrew Dominik, cast: Brad Pitt, Scott McNairy, Ben Mendelsohn; Seven Psychopaths (HE), d/w: Martin McDonagh, cast: Colin Farrell, Woody Harrelson, Sam Rockwell, Christopher Walken, Abbie Cornish; The Place Beyond The Pines (HE), d: Derek Cianfrance, cast: Ryan Gosling, Bradley Cooper, Rose Byrne, Ray Liotta, Eva Mendes; Only God Forgives (HE), d: Nicolas Winding Refn, cast: Ryan Gosling, Kristin Scott Thomas, Yayaying. (4)

Stand-alone: Skyfall, d: Sam Mendes, cast: Daniel Craig, Helen McCrory, Javier Bardem. (1)

Anticipated Quality, Presumed Fall-Holiday Release, No Dates: The Master (HE), d: Paul Thomas Anderson; cast: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams, Laura Dern; Cloud Atlas (HE), d: Wachowski Bros., Tom Tykwer; cast: Tom Hanks, Hugo Weaving, Jim Sturgess, Hugh Grant, Halle Berry, Susan Sarandon, Ben Whishaw; The Burial (a.k.a. Untitled Terrence Malick), d/w: Terrence Malick, cast: Ben Affleck, Rachel McAdams, Jessica Chastain, Rachel Weisz, Michael Sheen, Javier Bardem; Hyde Park on Hudson, d: Roger Michell, cast: Bill Murray, Laura Linney, Olivia Williams. (4)

Harvey Keitel during shooting of Wes Anderson’s Moonrise Kingdom.

Probably a 2013 Release: Inside Llewyn Davis, d: Joel and Ethan Coen. (1)

September 2012: Argo (9.14, HE), d: Ben Affleck, cast: Ben Affleck, Alan Arkin, Bryan Cranston, John Goodman, Kerry Bishe, Kyle Chandler; Looper (9.28, HE), d: Rian Johnson, cast: Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Bruce Willis, Emily Blunt, Paul Dano, Jeff Daniels, Piper Perabo; Savages (9.28, HE), d: Oliver Stone, cast: Taylor Kitsch, Blake Lively, Aaron Johnson, John Travolta, Uma Thurman, Benicio Del Toro, Salma Hayek, Emile Hirsch, Demian Bichir. (3)

October 2012: The Gangster Squad (10.19, HE); d: Ruben Fleischer, cast: Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone; Untitled David Chase ’60s “Music-Driven” Film (1.19, HE), d: David Chase, cast: James Gandolfini, Brad Garrett, Bella Heathcote, Christopher McDonald; Nero Fiddled, d: Woody Allen, cast: Ellen Page, Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Allen, Penelope Cruz, Alison Pill, Alec Baldwin, Greta Gerwig; The Impossible, d: Juan Antonio Bayona, cast: Naomi Watts, Ewan Mcgregor. (4)

November 2012: The Silver Linings Playbook (11.21, HE), d: David O. Russell, cast: Jennifer Lawrence, Bradley Cooper, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver, Chris Tucker, Julia Stiles; Gravity (11.21, HE), d: Alfonso Cuaron; cast: Sandra Bullock, George Clooney. (2)

December 2012: Les Miserables (12.7, HE), d: Tom Hooper, cast: Russell Crowe, Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway; Great Hope Springs (12.14), d: David Frankel , cast: Meryl Streep, Tommy Lee Jones, Steve Carell; The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (12.14); Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Osama bin Laden Film (12.14, HE); This Is Forty (12.21, HE), d: Judd Apatow, cast: Paul Rudd, Leslie Mann, Albert Brooks, Megan Fox, Melissa McCarthy; World War Z (12.21), d: Marc Forster, cast: Brad Pitt; Lincoln (mid to late December, HE), d: Steven Spielberg, cast: Daniel Day Lewis, Sally Field, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Tommy Lee Jones; Django Unchained (12.25, HE), d: Quentin Tarantino, cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jamie Foxx, Christoph Waltz, Samuel L. Jackson, Sacha Baron Cohen; The Great Gatsby (12.25, HE), d: Baz Luhrman, cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Tobey Maguire, Joel Edgerton, Carey Mulligan, Isla Fisher; Life of Pi, d: Ang Lee, cast: Tobey Maguire, Irrfan Khan, Tabu. (10)

Hugo Weaving, Halle Berry and I-forget-his-name during shooting of Cloud Atlas.

Timur Bekmambetov‘s inability or refusal to restrain himself in the making of Wanted suggests that Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (20th Century Fox, 6.22), which he’s directing and co-producing with Tim Burton, will also be lurid and excessive. It would be nice if otherwise. I want to like or at least be amused by this thing, but a voice is telling me that Bekmambetov will do everything he can to prevent that.