Southern friendo has suggested that on the basis of a few similarities between Ben Affleck‘s Argo and Aaron Sorkin‘s The Trial of the Chicago 7, the latter might surge into two or three unexpected Oscar wins. I mostly disagree in light of the fact that 2021 is, of course, a woke year in which films by and about women and POCs are receiving special consideration. There was no wokester current, of course, during the 2012 and early ’13 Oscar campaign season, when Affleck was working the room with skill and finesse.

Southern friendo: “The Trial of the Chicago 7 has been nominated for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen), Best Cinematography (Phedon Papamichael), Best Film Editing (Alan Baumgarten) and Best Original Song — six noms in all. Nine years ago Argo was nominated for seven Oscars (Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Alan Arkin), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Original Score). It won three — Best Picture, Best Editing, Best Adapted Screenplay — although like Sorkin, Affleck was not nominated for director.  

“Chicago 7 has a great chance at winning Best Editing and Best Original Screenplay.  And both films are/were boosted by a Supporting Actor nominee — Chicago 7 has Sacha Baron Cohen in this category while Argo had Alan Arkin. It doesn’t matter if said actor wins but he/she needs to be nominated.  Since Sorkin was ‘snubbed’, this may be a narrative to [a win].

By the way an Academy friend comments that the last Best Actor slot was between Oldman and Mads Mikkelson. Oldman got in but just barely, this guy believes.

“Minari is still the Green Book of this year, being a fact-based true story that has ‘heart’.  Based on the filmmaker’s parents’ story, just like GB was based on the writer’s father’s story.”

HE response: “Minari has heart, yes. Doesn’t deliver anything close to the emotional impact of Green Book, but yes, it has heart.”

Southern friendo: “The multi-nominated Mank is not going to win Best Picture because of the lack of a Best Original Screenplay nom, which has to really upset Fincher since his father’s script was the reason he wanted to make it in the first place

“What does that leave?  Nomadland, of course — nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (McDormand), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography (Joshua James Richards) and Best Film Editing., Will it win Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture?   Does it win cinematography?  If so, that’s four.  Won’t win editing.  But if the Academy gives a Best Cinematography win to Mank or News of the World, then Nomadland wins three and all for Chloe Zhao, which would be historic.”

He also suspects that The Mauritanian‘s Tahar Rahim will win an Emmy for his upcoming performance in The Serpent (from Netflix on April 2nd).  He plays real-life serial killer Charles Sobhraj, who preyed on traveling tourists and hippies in Southweast Asia.”