Fantasy Moguls‘ Steve Mason is reporting that even though Will Smith, Akiva Goldsman and Peter Berg‘s Hancock was “flat” from Wednesday-to-Thursday with an estimated $17.1 million and a 2 1/2 day cume of just over $41 million, it’s nonetheless on target for $100 million over the 5 and 1/2 day holiday weekend. But I say no to that.
The truth is that Hancock‘s ticket sales yesterday should have been more than its Wednesday business, which was estimated at $17.3 million. Instead it did $17.1 million — flat-ass. A movie that’s really happening with the public would have jumped to $19 or $20 million yesterday. This tells you the word on the street (i.e., that the third act is an out-and-out disaster) is probably catching up with it.
July 4th is always a dead day, so Saturday’s business will tell the tale. But I’m figuring Hancock will do $80 to $90 million by Sunday night. And if this happens, anyone who reports that figure as an absolute box-office triumph will be less than honest in their assessment. Not that $80 to $90 million is anything to sniff at. It’s just that you can’t expect sales to be rocket-ship historic if the dogs don’t like the dog food. If you make a movie that goes completely insane and blows itself up in the third act, sooner or later people will realize this and respond accordingly.
Kit Kittredge, sad to say for Picturehouse/NewLine, is a flat-out disaster. It did about $1.1 million on Wednesday in 1700 theatres, averaging $600 a theatre. And it $900,000 on Thursday for a $500 per theatre average. Complete wipe-out. Mason pussyfoots by saying it’s “unlikely to top $10 million” by Sunday night. Gee, do ya think so?