Definitely The Queen’s Gambit Anya Taylor Joy and Mare of Easttown‘s Kate Winslet. WandaVision‘s Elizabeth Olsen will also be nominated, I expect, but she won’t beat Joy/Winslet. I never watched Cynthia Erivo‘s Aretha (Genius), partly because I have this idea in my head that Jennifer Hudson‘s Respect will be more definitive, Aretha biopic-wise. I haven’t yet watched The Underground Railroad (I’m told it’s a chore) or I May Destroy You so I have no opinion about Thuso Mbedu or Michaela Coel. For what it’s worth I agree with the below-stated opinion of Daniel Fienberg.