The big surprise of the Golden Globe awards, of course, was Wes Anderson‘s The Grand Budapest Hotel taking the Best Motion Picture, Comedy/Musical award. Some had claimed it was surging; others sensed that it was. Bad for Birdman, you say? I don’t think so. I’ve always loved Budapest Hotel but I think the Hollywood Foreign Press just likes to go quirky and regional every so often and spread it around. A filmmaker friend, however, thinks that Budapest might be bouncing out of the GG awards and surging bigtime in the Oscar race, and that it might elbow Birdman aside.

(l. to .r) Grand Budapest Hotel guys Adrien Brody, Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson at the Fox Searchlight after-party.

Birdman director Alejandro G. Inarritu, director Rodrigo Garcia in the Birdman corner of the Fox Searchlight party.

Here’s an analysis that the filmmaker guy sent along along with my responses:

1. “Forget about Jennifer Aniston getting a Best Actress nomination. Amy Adams will have the final slot in the Best Actress.” My response: I don’t think so. The Golden Globe awards has nothing to do with Academy nominations. I think Aniston will make the cut.

2. “Wes Anderson will win Best Original Screenplay, not Birdman.” My response: Possibly. I don’t know. I feel disoriented. I feel dizzy.

3. “Best Adapted Screenplay will go to Imitation Game.” My response: Maybe.

4. “Three of the four acting awards tonight will repeat for certain. But Julianne Moore may not win — it could be Amy Adams. Why? Do you think they will honestly send Adams home zero for 6 and make her tie with Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter? Makes you wonder.” My response: Of course Moore will win. This Adams thing, which came out of nowhere, is, of course, strictly a Golden Globes phenomenon.

5. “Boyhood will not win Best Picture. As I also said in an earlier email, watch our for Grand Budapest Hotel, which is gaining momentum. Tonight’s win confirmed that.” My response: If you say so but I don’t know. I feel a Boyhood camaraderie everywhere I look. It’s not the wowser grand slam that Birdman is, but that doesn’t seem to matter to people. They’re just gathering around it.

6. “Birdman may go home empty handed on Oscar night. Or win editing. I don’t think Chivo wins two years in a row. I think Roger Deakins will (finally) win Best Cinematography. Deakins is owed big time.”

7. “We know the Academy likes to spread things around. But do you think this will mark the third year that the Best Picture winner takes only 3 Oscars, as Argo and 12 Years a Slave did? Doubtful.

8. “Grand Budapest Hotel will win art direction, costume, music, screenplay, and Picture. Ralph Fiennes might even sneak in a nomination, but there may not be enough room at the inn. Next Thursday morning’s gonna be really interesting.” My response: Fiennes hasn’t a chance in hell.