I dawdled all morning and now I’m fucked with only four hours to file before going to the Golden Globes awards, which in my case means driving over to Century City for a shuttle that will take at least 15 minutes to navigate the barriers surrounding the Beverly Hilton garrison state . The 20th Century Fox viewing party begins around 4 pm, I guess. Black suit, black tie, cool shoes, cruel shoes…as long as they’re not brown.

Best Motion Picture — Drama: Will Win — Spotlight / Should Win — Spotlight…even though I have to say that The Revenant has continued to grow and grow in my head and Mad Max: Fury Road, my third place favorite, is an epic apocalyptic action film that will be part of the streaming conversation for many years to come.

Best Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical: Will Win — I know I should predict The Martian but the more hoo-hah that accumulates around this smart but lightweight rescue flick, the more I feel like putting it down. Plus there’s no way that the biggest and whoriest HFPA contortionist can call The Martian a “comedy”…get outta here! So I’m going to predict The Big Short because its rep has been ascending for the past couple of weeks. The question is whether or not HFPA members have been hip enough to pick up the signals.

Best Director — Motion Picture: Will Probably Win — all hail Ridley Scott (a.k.a., Mr. Gold Watch) for totally succumbing to corporate escapism and betraying the impulses that led to the making of one of his greatest films, also for 20th Century Fox — The Counselor. Should Win — Alejandro G. Inarritu for The Revenant and/or George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama: Will Win/Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant. He’s rich, he shoulda won it for The Wolf of Wall Street, he’s due, he’s been slamming it for 23 years, he suffered in Alberta, ate the liver, etc. Who could vote for The Danish Girl‘s Eddie Redmayne? Somebody tweeted this morning that they deserve an Oscar for watching Tom Hooper‘s film.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama: I know I should predict Room‘s Brie Larson, but I hated, hated, HATED so much of Lenny Abrahamson‘s film (except for the escape-and-salvation sequence and the touching finale) that I just can’t do it. I can’t do it! Should Win/Might Win: Brooklyn‘s Saoirse Ronan, a consummate pro who totally deserves the prize.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical: Should Win/Oughta Win — Trainwreck‘s Amy Schumer. She touched bottom and found the ache and the longing in this smart, impudent Judd Apatow comedy, and truly out-pointed her competitors (Grandma‘s Lily Tomlin, The Lady In The Van‘s Maggie Smith, Joy‘s Jennifer Lawrence, Spy‘s Melissa McCarthy) in the bargain. I don’t want to hear about any kneejerk Maggie Smith sentiment. Way too many trophies and accolades…enough.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical: Will Win — Matt Damon, The Martian. I would prefer to see Steve Carell or Christian Bale win for their Big Short performances, but I know it’s not gonna happen.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture: I don’t want to hear about anyone winning this except Love & Mercy‘s Paul Dano. The Movie Godz have been proclaiming for months that Dano should win, and they’re not lying — period, finito, end of discussion. I also think I’ve made it clear that Hollywood Elsewhere is ground zero for the the totally respectful pushback against Bridge of Spies Mark Rylance. And it would be incorrect if Creed‘s Sylvester Stallone were to win. I won’t be shattered if this happens but the award belongs to Dano, dammit.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture: Will Win/Should Win — The Danish Girl‘s Alicia Vikander.

Best Screenplay — Motion Picture: Should Win/Will Win — Charles Randolph, Adam McKay for The Big Short.

Best Animated Feature Film: Should Win — Anomalisa. Will Probably Win — Inside Out.

Best Foreign-Language Film: Will Win/Should Win — Son of Saul.

Best Original Score — Motion Picture: Will Win/Should Win — Ryuichi Sakamoto, Alva Noto for The Revenant.